Not great.
Every year, we have a few weeks that erase our gains and momentum. One such week just hit us.
I won’t wallow too much in the disappointment, as it was also a bad week for those who make the spreads. By now, any reader of mine should know that we aim to work with these people instead of against them. In the end, they’re the ones who profit. So, too, do we.
Outside of the one comment regarding the general industry, I will keep this week’s introduction uncharacteristically short. Because, compared to other weeks, we have an uncharacteristically long slate of games. And, with three on Thanksgiving Day, it’s likely that there is a lot of reading to be done in a short time.
From the bottom of my heart… thank you, always, for being the ones who read when I write.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 39-33-2 (Last Week: 3-2)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 87-86-3 (Last Week: 4-10)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Over the past few weeks, I have been back-and-forth on the Detroit Lions and the likelihood that they compete in, let alone win a game. I’ve stated everything from Jeff Driskel “isn’t the quarterback to lead Detroit to a mid-November win against a team in the playoff race” to the comment that his “moments of success have appeared more frequently” when compared to someone like Dwayne Haskins. At the end of the day, the reality is that we still can’t ask the Lions to win a game with Driskel under center.
But, those who make the odds are asking exactly that. Or, at least, to lose a close game.
Immediately upon looking at the two teams in play, we see a direct rematch of last year’s contest. But, the two teams are anything but similar to what we had in 2018. The Chicago Bears already have two more losses, this year, than they did in all of last season. The Detroit Lions are either starting Jeff Driskel under center again or David Blough.
Perhaps the most important difference between last year’s Bears and the one that is threatening a quarterback change with almost every drive is that the defense was outstanding in 2018. It ranked third in yards-per-game and first in points-per-game. This helped mask an offense that finished the season 21st in yards-per-game.
Therein lies the hidden value in what the Bears have done in 2019 compared to 2018. Again, Chicago’s defense is in the top-four for yards and points allowed, but it gets overlooked by the record. At 4-6, sitting at 29th in yards-per-game offensively is a problem. But, ranking only eight spots higher in 2018, it wasn’t a story as the team still won 12 games. It didn’t need to score a lot of points in order to win.
And it won’t need to score a lot of points in order to win on Thursday.
Detroit’s offense is not a complete disaster in the hands of Driskel, but it has also been held to 16 points or fewer in two-of-his-three starts. One of these games happened to be against the Bears. Which means that, in a short week and after just seeing what Driskel has to offer, the Bears don’t need to do anything more than hold down the Lions from putting forth a big effort. If nothing else, Chicago can handle that task. And, if Blough plays instead of Driskel, Chicago’s road to a victory becomes even easier.
The Bears win by a touchdown against the Lions for the second time in a month, covering the spread.
Confidence Pick: Chicago Bears (-3)
Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys
How easy is it going to be to cast aside the Dallas Cowboys after their loss to the New England Patriots?
Because, eleven games into the season, all six of Dallas’ wins have come against teams that currently have a losing record.
And the Buffalo Bills come into town on Thanksgiving with an impressive 8-3 record.
And the Cowboys’ head coach is, for arguably the first time with any real substance, being called into question by the owner.
So, how easy will it be to cast aside the Dallas Cowboys? Quite easy.
And yet, those who make the odds didn’t do it.
Despite all of the factors – including many that will drive public perception – pointing against Dallas, it is favored by a large amount of points on Thursday afternoon. What gives?
Perhaps the opposite perception. The one that states that a Cowboys team playing at home on Thanksgiving can’t lose.
According to CBS Sports, Dallas is 1-7 against-the-spread on Thanksgiving games since 2011. But, the Cowboys continue to see inflated spreads. Because the power of perception outweighs reality when spreads are in-play.
Dallas has the ideal setup to answer all of the critics by winning on Thursday afternoon. But, the matchup, itself, does not point to a big victory. Buffalo’s defense ranks third-best in yards and points, and it has held opponents to 19 points or fewer eight times. The offense remains a concern, but the team has also only lost one game by more than six points. It does enough to compete.
And the Cowboys will do enough to win. Especially if they follow the blueprint laid out by their division-mates from Philadelphia. That is, run the ball relentlessly.
In the end, perception is just too large for a massive Cowboys rebound that, even though the team will bounce back after a loss to New England, it won’t be enough. Dallas wins by a single point, but Buffalo beats the spread.
Confidence Pick: Buffalo Bills (+6.5)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
The records may not indicate it, but we have one of the best games of the weekend on Thursday night. Although, it may not actually be competitive.
When I refer to “best” in terms of the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, it is in the sense that storylines and pieces of value can be found everywhere. Let’s dig in and see what we can uncover.
The first and obvious note to mention is that New Orleans was completely shut down by Atlanta when the two teams last met. Earlier this month. Not only do we have an opportunity for the Saints to get revenge, but they do so in a short amount of time. Give the advantage to New Orleans in this area.
We also have two boosts of perception acting against each other due to the timing and location of the game. People had just started to buy into Atlanta after it had convincingly won back-to-back games. But, a loss to the Buccaneers will most likely do damage to the expectations for the Falcons. However, this could be negated by Atlanta playing a Primetime game at home. It had led to one of the best streaks in the league for years. This is no longer the case, but the game being in Atlanta will certainly help keep the spread from exploding.
Finally, in terms of timing, the spread gets another suppression by the Saints’ near-loss to the Panthers. More importantly, New Orleans allowed 31 points and a chip-shot field goal with less than two minutes remaining in the game. It was similar to Saints teams of the past, and will likely remind people that New Orleans’ defense had always been a liability that put the offense in a position where it needed to win games. But, it also shouldn’t be forgotten that said offense did and does win games. Quarterback Drew Brees has played the last four games for the Saints, and the team has a total of 1,566 yards in that span. New Orleans went 3-1 in those games.
If we combine the aforementioned notes, we can see a narrative that leads to the Falcons competing. But, this narrative is based on false or outdated factors. The Saints still have a top-ten defense – in yards-per-game – and has just played three consecutive division games. As a group, we can take these games seriously, but we can’t pick-and-choose which one was ‘real’ and which wasn’t. Which means that Carolina making a furious and impressive comeback or the Falcons dominating New Orleans’ offense are not individual pieces of a puzzle that can be inspected. Instead, look to the 2-1 overall record, but the 1-2 record against-the-spread in said games. Because this is why the number is not incredibly high.
The Saints were simply caught out-of-position in a division game against a team they overlooked when the Falcons won, last time. It won’t happen again on a short week in front of a national audience. New Orleans wins by seventeen points and covers the spread.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals
I stepped away one week earlier than I should have. And it was a mistake.
The New York Jets are not beating up on bad teams. They aren’t suddenly deciding not to lose games. And they aren’t lucky.
The Jets are actually a decent football team.