It doesn’t feel real.
I’m supposed to be good with words. I write thousands of them, every week. I should be able to capture emotion without stating it. But I can’t. Because this excitement is something we feel with-or-without me mentioning it.
I can tell you I’m excited for this upcoming football season. But you know that. Because you are, too.
I can try to craft the narrative that brings out that feeling. Touch on the rough chips between fingers or the popping sound of an opening can. I don’t need to.
At the end of the day, nothing generates excitement for football season more than football, itself.
That’s all it is. A perpetual motion machine that has taken us through ups-and-downs over the course of half-a-decade.
That doesn’t feel real. This season will be my sixth writing my picks publicly. Six years of 256 regular season and eleven postseason games.
I can tell you, honestly, that I love every minute of it.
One of the great moments of the football season is right now. Right before the games begin. When we can look at the entire landscape of the league and not only determine where each team should go, but how they will get there.
This is why I love the first week of any season. It’s a series of ‘if-then’ statements where, “If one team is going to win double-digit games and it has a matchup against a team projected to lose double-digit games, then the following outcome should take place.”
Of course, the trick is in finding the rules that make these statements work. That’s the job.
And as I’m working through these thoughts, predictions, and preview columns, and as the summer starts to wind down, I actually ask myself if football is really as close as it appears. If it’s within my reach.
Now, as I write these words in lieu of an informative introduction, it starts to bubble inside of me. That feeling that this isn’t a dream. That I’m lucky enough to have a community of readers who continually want to hear what I have to say. That I’ve made connections and friends with them. And that we all share this love of a sport that comes back, every year.
And now it’s here. And it’s real.
Here’s to another great season…good luck!
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: —– (Last Week: —)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: —– (Last Week: —)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Every year, I write almost the same comments for my Week 1 introduction as the first game in which I find an offseason ‘favorite’ in-play. That is, I absolutely love Opening Week because the general football fan is still living off the prior season’s results. We are looking ahead to what-will-be. And Opening Night gives us the perfect place to watch it unfold. Oddly enough, I chose to not include this commentary in this year’s introduction. Probably because the first game of the year gives us the opportunity to see it in action.
As I wrote in my NFC predictions column, I am ‘buying’ the Green Bay Packers as aggressively as I am ‘selling’ the Chicago Bears – in fact, the Bears pick is one of my personal favorites. That the two teams are meeting to start the season is a welcomed sight, especially since it is a standalone game that will demand undivided attention.
It’s an interesting move in our favor considering that this is the first time since 2003 that the defending Super Bowl champion isn’t playing on Opening Night. We need to take advantage of the preferable matchup.
Last year, Green Bay suffered its first back-to-back set of losing seasons since Aaron Rodgers took over as the team’s starting quarterback. At the same time, Chicago exploded for 12 wins after not even reaching nine in each of the prior five years. These two outcomes are intertwined, as the Bears clearly took advantage of a Packers team in the middle of a ‘down season.’
Actually, we could argue that the Bears somewhat contributed to the Packers’ ‘down season.’
In Opening Week of last season, quarterback Aaron Rodgers was injured in a game against the Bears. Rodgers completed a miraculous, unforgettable come-from-behind victory that continued to solidify his legacy, but Rodgers appeared weakened by the injury for a large portion of the year. With an entire offseason to rehabilitate his body, and with a new head coach to help focus on the points of the offense that could thrive, Rodgers and the Packers are in the best possible position to complete the road ‘upset.’ Because, by the end of the year, anyone who is following my season-long trends for these two teams will not consider it an ‘upset’ if the Packers were to beat the Bears.
Green Bay starts the year with a road victory, winning by four points and beating the spread.
Confidence Pick: Green Bay Packers (+3)
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: the Cleveland Browns are supposed to be good.
I’m kidding. I know you haven’t heard that one.
But, now you are.