It’s that time of year, again! You know the one, when the two best teams from each conference meet in what-is-expected-to-be a ‘Super’ game that decides the champion of this current season. And you also know what’s so great about said matchup. The props.
That’s right. This is one of my favorite articles to write, every year, because this is the one in which I could be wrong and still be right. Why? Because it’s fun. And sometimes, having fun is a little more important than wracking our brain to squeeze out a profit.
I’m actually serious about that last sentence. I think that part of the reason why I love writing this yearly article so much is because we can all accept that it isn’t likely to produce winners. The expectations are at zero, and anything we gain from it is solely for our own entertainment. Sometimes, we just want to be entertained.
So, give me an approximate time of the National Anthem and I’ll bet it. Give me a Gatorade bath and I will continue to pick the wrong color.
Give me the Super Bowl props, and give me some fun.
With that being said, we lead with our usual disclaimer. The prop bets below are compiled from different websites, and the opinions given is purely satirical. Do not use this as advice, in any way.
This year, I happened to use multiple sources for the Prop Bets. Here they are: Denver Post, Inside Hook, Q104 Radio, FanDuel SportsBook, and DraftKings Sportsbook.
Coin Toss – Heads or Tails
I always start with the coin toss for obvious reasons – it starts the game – but I learned something interested recently. R.J. Bell was on The Michael Kay Show on 98.7FM in New York and mentioned that, over the long haul, ‘tails’ has a slight edge in the Super Bowl because of the added weight on the side of ‘heads’ in commemorative coins. Still, I can’t get myself to swap now, and I won’t start chasing the other side. I’m picking ‘heads,’ and I’m losing with it. But at least I know there might be a reason why I keep losing.
Prediction: Heads
How long will it take Demi Vovato to sing the National Anthem? Over/Under 2 minutes, 4 seconds
Sigh. Another one I get wrong as part of my yearly tradition. But I’ll admit that this one is more for my rooting interest than anything else. I simply enjoy panicking as the stopwatch keeps running and the singer keeps dragging out the words. I have problems. But, in terms of actual analysis, I do find it interesting that this year’s length of the National Anthem prop is fourteen seconds longer than last year’s. That feels like a big jump. I’ll take the extra leeway.
Prediction: Under
How many TikToks will be made by Patrick Mahomes’ brother on Feb. 2? Over/under 5.5
Complete transparency here, upon reading this question, I openly muttered, “C’mon, five-and-a-half? That’s a lot.” Further complete transparency here, I also have no idea how many times a person TikToks in a day. But, even if I did, it does stand to reason that Super Bowl Sunday would be the time that Patrick Mahomes’ brother is, by extension, in the spotlight. He should – and probably will – take advantage of it. But the reality is that I won’t even be tracking this pick, let alone searching to find out if I won. Therefore, I will stick with my gut that never always fails me when it comes to prop bets.
Prediction: Under
Will the broadcast show Alex Rodriguez during halftime? Yes (+200) or No (-300)
This one is intriguing, and it’s even more tantalizing because of the odds. Notice how the question doesn’t specifically state that he would have to be part of the Halftime Show. Or even that he has to be in a specific location. It would be impossible to believe that he won’t be at the game – as someone from Miami who is engaged to the headliner – so, if we’re only asking for a split-second cutaway to Alex Rodriguez clapping, I can’t imagine a scenario in which that doesn’t happen. I’ll take the bait here.
Prediction: Yes
Will Pitbull make an appearance during the Halftime Show? Yes (-165) or No (+130)
Now, this is the exact ‘trap’ I expect to have seen from the Alex Rodriguez prop. That is, the requirement for this to win is quite strict. It needs to be an appearance by Pitbull. Which probably means he joins in a song. I’ve looked for this to happen countless times from other artists when all logic points to it and it almost never comes to fruition. There are simply less surprises than we would think.
Prediction: No
Which song will Jennifer Lopez sing first during the Halftime Show? The most heavily favored are: On The Floor (+400), Jenny From The Block (+425), Let’s Get Loud (+450), Live It Up (+600), and Get Right (+700)
Completely true story here. When I was fifteen, I was in a Cotillion Dance – which, despite Googling, still feels like it’s spelled wrong or is the wrong use of the word. The song? Let’s Get Loud. I am not a dancer by any stretch of the imagination. This dance was among my crowning achievements in life. Jennifer Lopez would be proud. So she’ll honor me by opening with that song.
Prediction: Let’s Get Loud
Which song will Shakira sing first during the Halftime Show? The most heavily favored are: She Wolf (+250), Whenever, Wherever (+400), Dare (+550), Hips Don’t Lie (+600), La Tortura (+700), and Can’t Remember To Forget You (+700)
If this were a Shakira concert with her diehard fans, then I can understand deviating and opening with a less popular hit. For the Super Bowl? Open with the one that put you on the mainstream map.
Prediction: Whenever, Wherever
Will Jennifer Lopez cover a Selena song during the Halftime Show? Yes (+350) or No (-600)
Honestly, excellent question. And mainly because my neighbor used to force me to watch Selena so many times that I can basically rewrite the script, if asked. It’s tricky because that movie helped Jennifer Lopez’s image as a singer as much as an actress. So I see the avenue for an ‘upset’ here. But, Lopez isn’t performing alone. She and Shakira need to share the stage, and I’m not sure it works if Lopez replaces one of her scheduled songs with one from Selena. In the end, I’m picking against it, but I find it extremely intriguing.
Prediction: No
What color will the liquid be that gets dumped on the winning coach? Purple (+120), Red (+300), Yellow/Green (+375), Clear/Water (+700), Orange (+750), Blue (+1100)
Okay, something is amiss here. I know this is one that I get wrong, every year, and I know that this year will be no exception as I blindly pick ‘red’ in hopes that I’m right once in my lifetime. But, take a look at how violently the odds have shifted in just one year. ‘Water/clear’ was the prohibitive favorite in last year while ‘purple’ was the most extreme long shot. Now ‘purple’ is the favorite. Someone must know something, and it’s being reflected in the odds. I’m continuing to go down with the metaphorical ship by sticking with ‘red,’ but just know that ‘purple’ is probably the right answer.
Prediction: Red, because.
And now time for some actual picks. These are mainly being listed because I like the odds, even if the picks, themselves, are either contradictory or unlikely to hit. As always, do your research, be careful, and play responsibly.
Emmanuel Sanders OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125) – One of the main storylines surrounding Super Bowl LIV is the limited number of pass attempts for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo – I even mentioned it in my column. But, he will be throwing the ball on Sunday – possibly out of necessity and possibly out of intentional gameplan. He found an immediate connection with Emmanuel Sanders as soon as he was acquired by San Francisco, and with the exception of George Kittle, Sanders is arguably Garoppolo’s most trusted target. Increase pass attempts and a low target number for Sanders makes it likely that he snags a handful of catches for more than 40 yards.
Raheem Mostert UNDER 77.5 Rushing Yards (-118) – Similar to the Sanders pick, the 49ers will run the ball, but they will clearly be involved in the passing game, as well. The reality is that Raheem Mostert can succeed as a receiver, which would limit the number of rushing yards he were gaining. The number isn’t extremely high, but it becomes too out-of-reach if Mostert were to handle most of his rushing attempts inside the red zone where he simply doesn’t have the room to gain a high number of yards.
OVER 1.5 Total Lead Changes in the Game (+100) – This is actually one of my favorite picks for the entire game, and I might like it even more than my against-the-spread pick – but be careful, don’t go running to be too aggressive just because I like it so much. Still, the pick perfectly captures the game plan I expect both teams to utilize. That is, the Chiefs would arguably be better served playing a back-and-forth game than looking to jump out to a big lead and hold on to the end. Similarly, the 49ers will have to win the game through either stifling defense or an enhanced offensive attack. But even the “stifling defense” is unlikely to pitch a shutout against Kansas City’s offense. All we’re looking for is two lead changes, and there is a path for this to happen.
There WILL be a Lead Change in the 2nd Quarter (+172) – For starters, look at the odds. They’re quite tempting. But, they are likely so inviting because the pick calls for a specific quarter in which the lead change would need to occur. But, if we already bought into the idea that the game should feature at least two changes, it’s clearly possible that one happens in the second quarter.
There WILL be a Lead Change in the 3rd Quarter (+175) – This follows the same line-of-thinking as the pick for the second quarter and, with the odds being as large as they are, it’s also some protection. If we get the two lead changes and one – only one – happens in one of the two listed quarters, we win. In other words, we don’t have to win both picks.
CHIEFS to have the Longest Drive (Yards) Resulting in a Field Goal (-125) – I’m taking a chance and trying to read minds, here. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been in the Super Bowl before, but it’s a been a long time since his last – and only other – appearance. He is not leaving points on-the-board, despite how powerful his offense is. Conversely, 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator the Atlanta Falcons in their famous collapse against the Patriots. One of the biggest knocks on Shanahan in that game was the conservative nature of the play calling – most importantly, for an offense that was outstanding, all season. Where I expect Reid and the Chiefs to settle for a field goal, I would look for Shanahan to push the envelope and possible go-for-it on 4th down in the red zone.
49ERS to have the Longest Field Goal (Including Overtime) (+100) – This is simply a pick based on the kickers and the faith I have in them, so it is more biased than I would like. Robbie Gould is back, healthy, and hit a 54-yard field goal in San Francisco’s last playoff game. Kansas City’s Harrison Butker has seen his team score twelve touchdowns in its two playoff games, yet he’s only had one field goal attempt. His one attempt was resulted in a successful kick, but it was now three weeks ago, which means his second attempted field goal of the postseason would be in the Super Bowl. I don’t love that for him. He also missed one of the twelve extra points.
Shortest Successful Field Goal will be UNDER 27.5 Yards (-130) – Again, it’s the Super Bowl. Take the points. This becomes even more important if it’s the first quarter and one-of-the-two-teams sustained a long drive and can’t afford to leave empty-handed.
Second Half to be Higher Scoring Half (-106) – Another pick I really like, although I am admittedly hesitant. I could definitely argue that both teams try to set the offensive tone early by scoring at-will in the first two quarters – making this pick that-much-harder to win – but we have seen nerves and a conservative approach lead-the-way in the early portion of Super Bowls, of late. If either happens, we are still looking at a high-flying offense that can score on any drive for a Chiefs team whose head coach is trying to seal his legacy – which means that Kansas City’s offense would not slow down – and a 49ers team whose head coach knows how dangerous it is to stop scoring – leading to offense from San Francisco if its winning. Either setup produces a high-scoring second-half, where the main key is if the first half set the bar too high or if followed recent patterns of remaining lower-scoring.