I always find it interesting how and where value presents itself. In the regular season, there is almost always value in September simply by playing off people’s overreaction from Week 1 or the misplaced expectations from offseason moves. In the postseason, we don’t have these same avenues to attack. If anything, those who make picks for the playoffs are more tuned in to what we should expect from each team. Therefore, we find value differently.
In prior years’ columns, I would occasionally touch on the ‘best way’ to approach the confidence picks on a weekly basis. I would state that we don’t aim to win all of them, but we do want to be on the winning side for the majority. Which means that, if I list six or seven picks, we want to win four. That’s it.
What this really means is that we have to know both what’s a realistic outcome and where we can make progress carefully. The former is critical – it is not practical to win every pick. The latter is a piggyback of the first concept, but with a plan behind it.
If we apply this thinking to the playoffs, then we can actually pick two teams from the same potential matchup to each win the Super Bowl or Conference. Of course, this isn’t even possible, but that’s what makes it so valuable. We will trade one opportunity for the next.
This year, more than ever, we have that laid out for us. Unless we buy into one single team being the eventual champion, we have a wider net to cast. And some nice value to catch along-the-way.
NFL Odds to Win Super Bowl LIV – Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook via TheLines.com:
1st Seed – Baltimore Ravens (2.2 to 1)
1st Seed – San Francisco 49ers (4 to 1)
2nd Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (4.5 to 1)
3rd Seed – New Orleans Saints (6 to 1)
2nd Seed – Green Bay Packers (10 to 1)
3rd Seed – New England Patriots (12 to 1)
5th Seed – Seattle Seahawks (25 to 1)
4th Seed – Philadelphia Eagles (25 to 1)
4th Seed – Houston Texans (33 to 1)
6th Seed – Minnesota Vikings (33 to 1)
6th Seed – Tennessee Titans (55 to 1)
5th Seed – Buffalo Bills (60 to 1)
One of the first moves I make is to cross off the teams that don’t fit the mold of either extreme value or ‘reasonable contender.’ The latter is subjective, but this type of analysis is, by nature, subjective. Because, by virtue of being in the postseason, all twelve teams are “reasonable contenders.” Therefore, the first few teams to be cut from my list of potential Super Bowl champions are the ones with either a coach or quarterback that I don’t trust or whose value is simply not worth the risk. The Minnesota Vikings might meet all three of the criteria. Kirk Cousins remains far below average in Primetime games and would need to win three road games before getting to the Super Bowl. I can’t put my future in his hands. The Buffalo Bills have the defense to stay in any game, but I remain unconvinced that quarterback Josh Allen is someone who can repeatedly elevate his game – he’d have to do it four consecutive times without failing. I have also seen nothing from head coach Sean McDermott to lead me to believe he can win head-to-head games with the likes of Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, John Harbough, and Sean Payton, to name a few. Finally, despite them being one of my favorite ‘sleeper’ teams this year, the Tennessee Titans‘ run will end prior to the Super Bowl. Maybe they win a game. Maybe they win two. But, in the world of downgrading teams because of quarterbacks or coaches, either Ryan Tannehill or Mike Vrabel, respectively, give me pause before taking the tantalizing odds.
Switching sides to the top of chart, I prefer to knock out teams that I have either considered overvalued for the entirety of the season or are too expensive in terms of odds. If you’ve read my columns over the course of this season, then