As much as I truly love writing my weekly picks column, diving into the season-long predictions for the entire league has become something I actively anticipate as the summer months arrive. This might be because the success rate has been so high with the picks over the past two years – 12-4 combined . Or simply because it helps me get excited for the next season of football. Either way, this column has been split into AFC and NFC, like usual.
Below are the full season predictions for the 2019 National Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable:
NFC East
Washington Redskins – 4-12, 4th in NFC East
I’m not going to completely eviscerate the Washington Redskins for their approach at quarterback over the last few years, but take a look at the current situation compared to what the team had.
Instead of Kirk Cousins – say what you will, but it’s a near-guarantee that he will have the best 2019 season of all the names mentioned in this paragraph – Washington is stuck with a battle between Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins. We need not look further to determine what to expect, this year. The Redskins won’t be great. Their only hope is to have caught lightning in a bottle with Haskins, but the team already announced that Keenum will be the starting quarterback.
I’m adding Washington to the list of teams that might not be so desperate for wins later in the season.
New York Giants – 8-8, 3rd in NFC East – Over 6 Wins
Forgetting expectations, predictions, and any numbers, the most intriguing team to follow might be the New York Giants. They have an aging quarterback who has shown signs of his demise for years, but they remain committed to using him for as long as humanly possible. But they also have a young quarterback-in-training who flew so under-the-radar in college that, when New York selected him in the draft, the general question asked was, “Who?”
Continuing with how intriguing the situation is, said young quarterback went out and had an outstanding preseason. As usual, this means absolutely nothing. But, it did, at least, answer the question of, “Who?” Because now people can put a face – and statistics and projections and hype – to the name.
Early in the preseason, Giants’ co-owner John Mara was quoted saying “I hope Eli has a great year and Daniel never sees the field…That would be an ideal world. We would like to see that.”
Mara is absolutely right. But, what happens if Manning starts the year slowly? What’s the metaphorical leash he is allowed? More importantly, if Manning struggles, how much value do the Giants place in backup Daniel Jones learning from the bench as compared to being on-the-field?
The good news for us is that we can paint a few different pictures as to how we can benefit from the answers, whatever they may be.
If Manning keeps his job for the entire season, it would have to have been a productive year that gets the Giants close to a playoff berth. It wouldn’t make sense for Manning to get benched in favor of Jones if the team has seven wins in by December. This would be a victory for our pick.
If Manning struggles, as long as the team doesn’t spiral into another 0-the-season start to the year, then Jones moves into the starting position and, compared to what Manning must have done to get to this point, Jones probably gets enough wins for us to profit from the pick.
Finally, the worst case scenario would be the last of the rhetorical questions I asked above. That is, if Manning is dreadful, but the Giants find it more valuable for Jones to sit on the bench than get on the field, we will probably not get near the win total we need. But, this is the least likely of the outcomes, largely because the Giants’ head coach and general manager are under extreme pressure to prove that their high draft picks are going to produce. Running back Saquon Barkley was outstanding, last year, and it would go a long way for the organization if both Barkley and Jones quickly deliver returns.
New York shouldn’t be in the playoff conversation, this year, but another double-digit loss season would be catastrophic given the back-to-back high draft picks. We have a number of paths for the Giants to beat the over-under win total, and we can ‘buy’ accordingly.
Dallas Cowboys – 9-7, 2nd in NFC East
I remember writing about the NFC East as one of the trickier divisions to predict, last year. It appears that little has changed. After Washington, it looks like any of the remaining three could make a push for the playoffs with varying degrees of likelihood. Enter the Dallas Cowboys.
I’ll admit that, part of this pick is due to the numbers – which I’ll explain in the writeup about the Eagles. Dallas, as I often highlight, is a nationally-recognized team. This means that its perception gets enhanced for better or worse. At an over-under win total of nine, the Cowboys are probably getting a little more of a positive boost than they deserve. But, the news around the team is nothing-but-negative. At least, in terms of distractions.
As of this writing, running back Ezekiel Elliott is holding out in hopes of a new contract. Wide receiver Amari Cooper wants one as well. The same is true for quarterback Dak Prescott. This isn’t ideal for Dallas entering a season as reigning division champions and following their second playoff win of the last nine years. Not ideal, but is it crippling?
The Cowboys are actually one of the more complete teams in the league. Their defense was superb in 2018, ranking in the top-seven for both points and yards allowed. The offense was neither explosive nor prolific, but I just named three players on this side of the ball who impact the game in a positive manner.
If we put all the pieces of the picture together, we can see that Dallas is an odd mix of positive perception, inflated expectations, and some heavy uncertainty. We can navigate through this and see that the team won’t be terrible – the talent is there – but should have a capped ceiling. The Cowboys could win the division or slip into the playoffs, but nothing suggests a big season is in-the-works. I’m keeping them just outside the playoff picture.
Philadelphia Eagles – 11-5 NFC East Winner
I went immediately to my phone and texted my friend:
“Can you guess the NFC team with the highest [over-under win total]? I couldn’t”
Neither could he.
In fact, he gave four different guesses before I had to give another hint. Only then did he land on the Philadelphia Eagles.
I don’t blame him. I was legitimately stunned. But, I am not one to fight the number if the perception isn’t driving it.
The Philadelphia Eagles are undoubtedly a good team, but they don’t have the backup quarterback – Nick Foles – who was beloved enough to keep the team afloat in case starting quarterback Carson Wentz gets hurt – as he appears to do on a regular basis. Therefore, without the depth at the most important position, and without perception forcing the number higher – people do believe in the Cowboys, so the division isn’t necessarily ‘free’ for the Eagles – we will have to trust that Philadelphia is an unavoidable playoff-worthy team. Might they fail? Of course. But the win total is absurdly high and, with nothing given out for free, we need to take it seriously.
The Eagles win the division on the arm of a healthy Wentz.
NFC North
Detroit Lions – 6-10, 4th in NFC North
I didn’t want to bury the Detroit Lions for a second consecutive year. I like quarterback Matthew Stafford. I believe that head coach Matt Patricia’s second season will be better than his first. And I look for opportunities to ‘buy’ teams coming off double-digit loss seasons.
I still don’t like the Lions in 2019.
Within the division, Detroit is arguably the only team not likely to make a playoff push. It also has a brutal open to the season with out-of-conference games scheduled against the Chargers and Chiefs in the first four weeks. Maybe the Lions get a slight break by playing the NFC East, but little has inspired me to expect more from Detroit than what we just saw.
Chicago Bears – 8-8, 3rd in NFC North – Under 9.5 Wins
Scrolling through my projected standings, I smiled when I reached the Chicago Bears. The same way I smiled when I reached the Colts – before Luck’s retirement – or last year’s Eagles. It was a ‘thanks for the memories’ smile.
It was also a ‘you are no longer needed’ smile.
One of my favorite season-long picks to make is switching sides after a pick has been successful. This is because of the always-important perception that drives a pick. Last year, the Chicago Bears’ win total sat below .500. I loved the Bears before the Khalil Mack addition – and I actually worried that the trade would bump up their number or weaken the odds – and expected a big year from Chicago. This was ‘contrarian.’ What happened? We got a big year from Chicago.
Now, those who missed the boat are looking to pile on before it leaves. Too late. It’s out-to-sea. If you want to benefit from the Bears, you will have to pay a premium.
Only, we don’t. We were in on Chicago before it was expensive. Call it a ‘ground-floor investment.’ Which means that we’ve had our success. Thanks for the memories. You are no longer needed.
‘Selling’ the Bears in 2019 isn’t solely due to how well we did with them, last year. It’s also part of regression for a team that hadn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2012, then popped from five wins to twelve on the heels of a new head coach. And it’s the fact that Chicago ranked ninth-best in point-per-game, but only 21st in yards. And it’s that