I make it a point to always profess my love for the second week of any season. This is because Week 2 of a given year provides the best opportunity to capitalize on overreaction. For a different reason, I always point to the second week of the playoffs as arguably the best of any year.
These are the best eight teams in the league – or, at least, the eight teams that have survived the longest – and we get them in the final busy weekend of a football season.
There is, of course, a value to be found, as well.
We don’t necessarily have overreaction to use as a driving force in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, but we do have biases. Extreme ones, at that. By virtue of how the matchups are determined, every road team in action has already won a playoff game, this year. And ever home team also had extended rest. Which side of the equation is stronger?
More importantly, which side will get unnatural support? Will the Titans or Vikings – the two six-seeds in their respective conferences – be viewed differently because of a single win? Or will the Chiefs and Packers gain perception advantages because they will be playing at home?
The second weekend of the playoffs has everything we’d want as fans. We just can’t be blinded to where we can also find value.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 56-42-3 (Last Week: 1-0)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 138-115-7 (Last Week: 1-3)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
I always write that “we expected this to happen” whenever we are presented with an outcome aligned with either the prior week’s picks or some season-long expectation. With that, I can honestly state that I did not expect the Minnesota Vikings to be playing in the second round of the playoffs. And it’s partly because it reshuffles the entire postseason picture.
Had the Saints won in the Wild Card Round, in addition to the obvious elimination of the Vikings, the San Francisco 49ers would be hosting the Seattle Seahawks – a division rival that already beat them in San Francisco, earlier this year. Instead, the 49ers will play host to a team that just pulled off a thrilling road victory and has a quarterback without a proven track record. It is, by comparison and using opinion as a gauge, an ‘easier matchup.’
But, isn’t this eerily similar to