As much as I truly love writing my weekly picks column, diving into the season-long predictions for the entire league has become something I actively anticipate as the summer months arrive. This might be because the success rate has been so high with the picks over the past two years – 12-4 combined . Or simply because it helps me get excited for the next season of football. Either way, this column has been split into AFC and NFC, like usual.
Below are the full season predictions for the 2019 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable:
AFC East
Miami Dolphins – 4-12, 4th in AFC East
As I write whenever I find myself leaning toward an obvious pick, “I really don’t like leaning toward an obvious pick.” But, it’s unavoidable at times. The Miami Dolphins are the embodiment of this. Can they be good? Probably, as any team could potentially win any game – just with varying levels of likelihood – so they would have to steal more than they should. Is this likely? Absolutely not. The best chance the Dolphins have of shocking the football world is quarterback Josh Rosen, and only because of his post-hype potential. It probably faded for a reason and, even if Miami thinks it found its quarterback of the future, it will soon find out the truth.
With the announcement of Ryan Fitzpatrick as the team’s starting quarterback, it is even less likely that we see any surprises in Miami. The only question is whether the Dolphins aim for the top pick in the draft or believe they have an answer in Rosen. Without Rosen starting, the former seems more likely.
Buffalo Bills – 6-10, 3rd in AFC East – Under 7.5 Wins
One of my favorite trends to follow is the universal use of the term “rebuilding.” And, it’s not because it’s flawed – it often isn’t – but because it is almost always used at the wrong time. Too often, a team is hit with the “rebuilding” tag because analysts believe that’s the current plan. Then, when said analysts believe the “rebuild” is over, they declare that “now is the time.”
But, do you see which word I used to indicate the analysts’ positions? “Believe.” It’s an opinion.
And it’s usually wrong.
Last year, the Seahawks were “rebuilding.” No, they weren’t. They were a playoff team. Again.
Now, everywhere I look, I hear about the Bills being “ready.” “The rebuild is over.”
I’m not so sure. My stance on a rebuild is that, when the right pieces are in-place, we can declare the rebuild “over.” I don’t mind making this claim before the action unfolds on the field – I do it all the time – but I do take exception when I see it applied to players who haven’t shown enough for me to, ironically enough, believe.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen is the player who most concerns me with the “Buffalo is now ready” argument. I don’t see it. In his first season, he threw more interceptions – twelve – than touchdown passes – ten – and led his team to more than 24 points only twice in his eleven starts. In fact, with the exception of the Week 17 dismantling of the Dolphins, Buffalo averaged just 16.3 points-per-game in Allen’s starts. Over a full season, that would have landed the Bills as the third-worst offense in the league. Which is exactly what they were.
I’ll be ‘selling’ the Bills in a division that may have the punching bag Dolphins, but both the Patriots and, now, Jets to prevent Buffalo from thriving.
New England Patriots – 10-6, 2nd in AFC East, Wild Card Berth
No, I’m not being crazy. The New England Patriots are still playoff-bound. Still double-digit-win-bound. Still great. The only title I’m stripping from them is “Division Champion.” The are, of course, reasons.
New England’s 11-win regular season was actually the lowest win total since 2009. That means that, in addition to the highly publicized 16-year streak of double-digit wins, the Patriots also entered last season on an eight-year streak of at least 12 wins. More importantly, of New England’s five losses, three were by double digits and fourth were by at least seven points. The last time either occurred was in 2008, when the Patriots lost three double-digit games and had an 11-5 record. The next year, New England dropped another to ‘fall’ to 10-6.
I have also been careful in the past to try to not pinpoint the timing for quarterback Tom Brady’s eventual downfall, but there was a small hint given by the Patriots that they, at least, acknowledge how they have to operate. Despite ranking only 20th in yards-per-attempt, New England still had the third-most rushes in the league. Conversely, with the sixth-most efficient passing attack, the Patriots ranked 11th in attempts. This imbalance happened again in 2016, but the last time New England sat in the top-five for rushing attempts and outside the top-ten for passing attempts was 2008. Again, we see the same decade-long stretch with similar gameplans and similar outcomes.
Finally, the Patriots are one of the rare teams that has multiple options for its win total. This is clearly because of New England’s popularity, but it also shows that the Patriots should be somewhere ‘around’ 11 wins, again. Essentially, we’re splitting hairs over the 10th or 11th win, so I wouldn’t go overboard with expectations in either direction. The point is that the Patriots should finally be pushed and, while they can push back, they may not easily win the fight.
New York Jets – 10-6, AFC East Winner – Over 7.5 Wins
I had to preface last year’s writeup about the New York Jets by declaring my fandom for the team. It’s impossible to ignore, because ranking them higher than the industry will lead to questions. Still, as I insisted last year and repeat again here, being a fan of the Jets has absolutely nothing to do with how I view them. Specifically, I am buying into the Jets for no other reason than their talent and head coach.
If you’ve been a reader of mine for years, you probably know that I give slight boosts to teams with certain head coaches or quarterbacks. The latter is easy to see in terms of impact on the field, while the former is subtle – i.e. I openly write that Russell Wilson is worth more than his numbers show, and I typically add a win for any projection I would have given Seattle. Over the past few seasons, the coach who drew a sneaky boost from me was Adam Gase when he was in Miami.
Gase was my personal top pick for any head coach vacancy, this offseason, and I was legitimately surprised when he was booted from the Dolphins. Because, as often as people like to question what he did in Miami, I have the same reply ready that always produces the same answer. “Did you think Ryan Tannehill was a good quarterback?”
The responses were basically unanimous. The best compliment he received was along-the-lines of, “He had that one good year…” or “Maybe if he wasn’t hurt.” Those were the good ones. Nearly every other was a metaphor for garbage.
I’ll try not to bemoan the point for the thousandth time, but it needs to be stated for any prediction regarding the Jets. Gase got more out of a bad Tannehill than most, and he should get the best out of a young, developing Sam Darnold. And, the reality is that the 4-12 Jets from last year should have been better than that. I actually wrote that my one fear for the team – that would have crippled my prediction, and did – is that the head coach – Todd Bowles – was so bad, he could drag down the potential.
The straight swap of Bowles for Gase should do wonders for a team that does have talent. The skill position players are finally dangerous – Robby Anderson and Le’Veon Bell, especially – the quarterback is in a position to thrive, and there are parts of the defense that border on elite – defensive line and safeties.
The Jets are one of the sneaky teams to surpass their win total and steal a division title.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals – 3-13, 4th in AFC North – Under 5.5 Wins
I went back-and-forth on whether I believe that the Cincinnati Bengals have one more chance at success or if we are about to see the floor fall out, once again. I’d like to lean toward the former solely because quarterback Andy Dalton is capable, and “capable” automatically bumps a team out of the basement. But, with a first-time head coach, it makes Cincinnati a bit tricky.
Normally, I love first-time coaches. I think they give the best opportunity for positive surprises. But, I went into this particular preseason with the knowledge that next year’s quarterback draft class is already expected to be better than what we just saw in April. This means that teams closer to the bottom of the standings may try to stay there. Wouldn’t the Bengals be the perfect fit?
Cincinnati will try to win, at first, but it would have taken a Herculean effort to make the playoffs, this year. Once January games are out-of-the-picture, I expect the Bengals to look toward the future. Wins will not be a priority, at that point.
Baltimore Ravens – 6-10, 3rd in AFC North – Under 8.5 Wins
There’s an incredibly obvious trend to my picks that can be followed from one season to the next. That is, if I don’t buy into a quarterback, but the general football world does, I’m almost always going to ‘sell’ that team. Think of last year’s 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo or the Broncos of a few years ago with Brock Osweiler – don’t forget, people loved what he did as a backup – or even Matt Cassel of days long gone after he filled in for an injured Tom Brady. It’s an easy formula, and it gets repeated constantly. Lamar Jackson is the newest to get such treatment.
Jackson already has