It’s no secret that I spend much of my days looking at the spreads for football games and, while I always try to explain that they are not an indication of what should or will happen, it is fun to see so many small numbers for a weekend of action. Because, even if none prove to be true, we still have the impression that we are about to watch some competitive games. Compared to recent years, this is fantastic.
Last postseason, we had an Opening Round matchup between Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles – that featured a cameo from Nathan Peterman. The Wild Card Weekend before that? Brock Osweiler and Connor Cook. That really happened. And before that, it was Brian Hoyer.
To say that this year’s games should be more exciting is an understatement. It’s the best set of first round matchups we have seen in a long time.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 60-48-4 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 128-116-12 (Last Week: 7-8-1)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Every year, around the third week of the season, I start to look at teams that are winless and try to determine if their poor start is a function of unfortunate matchups or inherent flaws. Usually, it’s the latter. But, the idea of the former is frequently cited as the excuse.
Really, when a team is 0-3, it’s probably because that team is simply not good. This is even more accurate when a team is 1-5. And yet, here we are. The playoffs are about to begin, and the first two teams that will start the weekend’s action are the ones responsible for the aforementioned records.
The fact that either team was able to recover from its devastating start is remarkable. It doesn’t happen, and it is a testament to their resiliency and makeup. It also carries some questions with it.
Were the Colts trying to work through the gameplan of a new head coach and that’s what resulted in a terrible start to the year?
Was Deshaun Watson’s knee still healing, leading to a poor first few weeks?
And, is it possible that every answer to every question was partially responsible for the narrative we will now tell about Houston and Indianapolis in 2018?
More importantly, how much of this matters now?
The parallels between the Colts and Texans are not that surprising. As division-mates, they both played nearly identical schedules, and they had similar outcomes for the majority of common games. These removes any substantial claims we could have made about either team’s strength-of-schedule.
It also means