Opening Day is a personal holiday for obvious reasons. I can’t sleep the night before the first full Sunday of games, and I am usually pacing by the time pregame shows are airing. But, despite the excitement that a new season brings, there is one week of the schedule that is always my favorite: Week 2.
We have everything we could possibly want, and it’s been like this for years. With two Monday Night Football games in Week 1, there are eight teams that were just highlighted by a national spotlight – two on Thursday, two on Sunday night, and the four from Monday. We also have the unforgettable statistic that basically states, “If you start 0-2, you’re finished.” And then there’s the short-term memory. Forget everything that happened last season, or even last month. There were only 60 minutes of football played by each team, and those are the 60 minutes from which all conclusions will be drawn.
Overreactions run abound in the short time between the end of Week 1 and the start of Week 2, but it is in this period where we find the most volatility. Spreads have been moving to keep pace with the frenetic nature that precedes Week 2, where arguably the most movement of the numbers takes place, all year.
Last week may have been the holiday, but this is the week we get to open our presents and have some fun.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 4-2-1 (Last Week: 4-2-1)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 8-7-1 (Last Week: 8-7-1)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
I’m proud of the football-watching world, for once. Not one single person is taking what the Baltimore Ravens did to the Buffalo Bills and applying it the expectation of future results. As I will write later in this column – and countless times throughout the year – the Ravens were supposed to win and, even though I didn’t predict this particular outcome, they were supposed to bludgeon the Bills into oblivion. So they did. Just another day at the office.
Unfortunately, I would have liked the spread to be a little more reactionary than it has. After all, the New York Jets won by 31 points on the road in a nationally-televised game, and it wasn’t even close to the biggest blowout of the weekend. Baltimore had that honor by another 13 points. Alas, here we sit, approaching a short turnaround for two AFC North teams that had been historically good over the years, both missed the playoffs in 2017, both won on Opening Day, and there is a small spread between them.
It’s a combination of multiple factors, of course, but the task-at-hand is to decipher which of these is most important.
The Ravens’ blowout victory sets the team up for a major regression. Last year, the Los Angeles Rams enjoyed the largest margin-of-victory in Week 1 when they abused the hapless Colts. Their next game? A loss to the previously 0-1 Redskins. The year before that, it was the San Francisco 49ers’ 28-0 win to take the crown of the biggest blowout from Week 1. It lost by 19 points the following week.
Cincinnati went into Indianapolis and beat the Colts on Sunday, but both the final score and the matchup were deceiving. The Bengals were the beneficiaries of a fumble returned for a touchdown on Indianapolis’ last threatening drive – making the score appear more lopsided than it was – but playing such a close contest with the Colts is no longer an embarrassment. Indianapolis is not a pushover now that quarterback Andrew Luck is healthy, and the Bengals deserve credit for a nice win, even if it’s not a big one.
We also have some history for the Bengals in their current position. Cincinnati hosted the Thursday Night Football game in Week 2 of last year and completely laid an egg, losing to the Houston Texans in a dismal 13-9 showing. The team will undoubtedly be better prepared, this time.
Finally, if we aren’t surprised by Baltimore dismantling Buffalo, then we shouldn’t be surprised that Cincinnati won on Opening Day. The Bengals are a sneaky pick to win the AFC North, and they retained both their head coach and quarterback based on how the team finished last season. It has upward momentum, and a Primetime game at home coupled with the likely regression of a division opponent sets up nicely for the Bengals to secure another win.
And they do. Cincinnati wins by a field goal and beats the spread.
Confidence Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+1)
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Believe-it-or-not, I couldn’t wait to write about the game between the Chargers and Bills on Sunday. It has too many interesting angles and storylines to ignore, despite the perceived disparity in talent.
Let’s start with the spread. Not the number, itself – although, that will be important shortly – but that, even without head coach Sean McDermott naming a starting quarterback for Sunday, the spread is already released. Imagine that. The oddsmakers don’t know whether Nathan Peterman or Josh Allen will be starting on Sunday, yet they don’t care.
That’s worth repeating. The oddsmakers don’t care.
It’s both fascinating and telling.