As expected, we saw the final push begin for a few teams in Week 13 – both good and bad. The Cowboys, Broncos, and Seahawks continued to make strides in crowded races, and were given some help by the Redskins, Colts, and Panthers all losing. This carries nicely into Week 14, as it leads to a completely different set of expectations now that we can see the finish line.
Which also leads to the separation between what needs to happen to make this playoff push and what actually will happen. And that’s where we can exploit the spread.
With a full, sixteen games on the schedule, this imbalance of perception and reality is featured heavily. Thankfully, so is one of my favorite trends that has, prior to last week, been largely unsuccessful in 2018.
Now, with only one-quarter of each team’s games remaining on the schedule, we can make our move along with the squads trying to slide into position down the home stretch.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 44-37-3 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 97-87-8 (Last Week: 7-9)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
We can’t have everything, can we? After a nice stretch of competitive games on Thursday Night Football, we are left with two AFC South teams battling, neither of which have a winning record. The irony of this comment is that two-of-the-last-three division titles were secured with fewer than ten wins. This year, the Texans already have nine.
This leaves the Jacksonville Jaguars already on the outside of the playoff picture. Which is where they were, last week, when they pulled off one of the more interesting ‘upsets’ of the weekend.
“Interesting.” Not necessarily “surprising.”
We knew the Jaguars were going to put up a fight against the Colts, even if it the team had turned to a backup quarterback. As a result, now that it has happened, we can’t suddenly be impressed.
On the other side of the game, what we saw from the Tennessee Titans was pitiful. The team was losing -at home – to the three-win Jets by nine points in the fourth quarter. And, had it not been for a serious of embarrassingly bad moments for New York, Tennessee probably wouldn’t have been in position to win, let alone escape with a victory in regulation. This is the classic example of my frequently stated message, “Don’t believe the final score.”