We normally like to break up the season into four different ‘quarters.’ But we would be doing a disservice if we don’t take note of a clear separation between last week and what lies ahead of us. Because there are no more bye weeks and no more multi-game Thursdays. With the exception of a few Saturday matchups sprinkled in, the rest of the season will largely be decided on Sundays.
As will the playoff picture.
We started to see a few new teams emerge as possible contenders, and this was largely aided by those already in-place failing to hold onto their leads. Teams like the Panthers and Redskins allowed the Seahawks and Cowboys, respectively – and directly – to slide into a better position. While the Colts continue their incredible ascent into the conversation.
We still have some time before the final push is completely underway, but it would be naive to assume it hasn’t already begun. As a result, we may have five games remaining for each team, but we are undoubtedly about to start the fourth quarter of the season.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 41-34-3 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 90-78-8 (Last Week: 6-9)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Listen to Episode 7 of our free podcast here:
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
One of the reasons why the National Football League is consistently so exciting is the short schedule and the frequency of key matchups. Even if one team appears to be in position to either thrive or crumble, the other is alive in some sort of race. On Thursday, we will see a 10-1 Saints team look to hold its position atop the NFC against a 6-5 Cowboys team now tied for first place in the NFC East.
It isn’t just the implications of Thursday’s matchup that should cause excitement. We also have an outstanding head-to-head battle between the best scoring offense – New Orleans – and the third-best scoring defense – Dallas. In addition, we will get an answer to an important question regarding the Cowboys, going forward. Is the Dallas’ defense ready for the spotlight?
To date, the Cowboys have not allowed more than 28 points in a single game, only two passing offenses have eclipsed 300 yards – both on the road, and the defense has allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns and third-fewest rushing yards-per-game.
But, of course, Dallas has not faced a team like the Saints. One that ranks at-or-near the top of almost every offensive category.
Which is undeniably why the spread is so large.
The Saints are an outstanding team with motivation to keep winning – they hold the tiebreaker over the Rams in the race for the top seed in the NFC, but they share the same record. They deserve to be favored in the game, and it isn’t only the offense that contributes. New Orleans also ranks second-best defensively in yards-per-rush. This is devastating for a Cowboys offense that thrives on the ground – fifth-most yards-per-rush. But, as we must always recognize, there is a difference between a team set up to win and a team set up to cover a spread.
As I have noted, heavy underdogs at home have been getting pummeled, this year. And it is not a trend likely to continue. At least, not in the back-end of the schedule, where we can decipher which teams are pushovers and which are contenders. Between the two options, Dallas is much closer to a “contender.”
The Saints are carrying a large premium because of their insane ten-game winning streak. But, they also have the best record in the league against-the-spread. It has reached an unsustainable level, and it has pushed the number of points far too aggressively for a nationally-televised game in Dallas. Which was also where the Cowboys most recently suffered their biggest loss of the season.
Thursday night provides a much more competitive battle, as the Saints win by a field goal, but the Cowboys beat the spread.
Confidence Pick: Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
When we last saw the Los Angeles Rams, they were capping off a victory in one of the most thrilling regular season games in recent memory. They were then left with two weeks to reflect on this win and prepare for their trip to Detroit to face the reeling Lions. Nothing would define a ‘letdown’ more than the Rams falling in Detroit, especially with the Saints still aiming for home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs and with a head-to-head win against Los Angeles.
But, should it