It’s here! It’s finally here!
I feel like a holiday just arrived. Or a gift. Or a package from Amazon for which I did not pay shipping – not directly, anyway.
Football season is finally back, and I am bursting with excitement. Gone are the preseason debates. The position battles. The meaningless games. Everything from this point on means something.
And to us, the collection of individuals made up of the author and readers of these columns, it means a lot.
It means that we get to spend this time together, every week. That we share in each other’s joy when the underdog pulls off an upset that “no one saw coming.” That we weep when a meaningless touchdown crushes our pick. That we regroup, each-and-every-year because we know that, at the end of the day, we get the National Football League. It’s ours.
I start there because each season has its own personal storyline both for the league and for me. Years ago, it was my article being featured on AOL Sports. Then it was success that we shared together atop the leaderboard of NFLPickwatch. After that, it was my adventure in opening this new website and subsequently having the worst year on record. And then it was redemption in 2017, proving that said ‘down year’ was, indeed, an outlier.
If you’ve stayed along for the ride through the dark days, then you’ve seen how bright it gets and you are undoubtedly here for the long haul. I appreciate that more than you will know, and it’s why I can’t ever imagine not writing these columns.
This year is just about football. Gone is the mission statement to “rebound” or the growing pains of a new website. Weeks ago, I sat down with a magazine in one hand and a coffee in the other, and I haven’t stopped writing since. Because, at the end of the day, writing about football makes me happy, and knowing that others can profit from my words gives me genuine excitement.
So here we are, ready to dive into the first week of the 2018-2019 season, and we are met with the same resistance as every year. That is, what will each team ultimately be by the time the season ends? Or even when September ends?
The good news is that we actually know what’s going to happen. Maybe not exactly. But we have an idea. And one of the most fun elements of predicting the outcomes of Opening Week is in looking ahead to the aftermath.
What happens if the Patriots lose, like they did, last year? The sports media is sent into hysteria. Or if a rookie quarterback goes on-the-road in front of a national audience and wins? Immediate Hall-of-Fame induction. And if the defending champions lose their Opening Night game? The following few days will be spent solely on how quickly the run has ended, how the team needs to ‘rebuild,’ and all the failings of former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles.
Football is fun, isn’t it?
Actually, yes. Because it’s our job to see this before it happens. To know that Sam Darnold and the Jets will be good. Or that Buffalo is about to collapse. Or that the New England Patriots are still the franchise which never wavers in its operation, regardless of public pressure.
It’s our job to not take the outcomes of the games too seriously because we have a pretty good grasp on what should happen. And, if we’re wrong, there is plenty of time for everything to balance out and for us to find ourselves on the winning side.
We usually do.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: — (Last Week: —)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: — (Last Week: —)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
The introduction of my picks column touched upon the potential aftermath of losing an Opening Night game, and it specifically addressed the task-at-hand for the Philadelphia Eagles. They aren’t just opening a new season. They are opening this season as defending champions, and they will carry that nickname with them throughout the year.
It’s a curse, really. Not in the sense that being on the cover of Madden should concern you – to that point, I just realized that I drafted Antonio Brown way too many times – but with the baggage it brings. Everywhere.
No one overlooks the defending champions. No one takes them lightly. No one doesn’t feel a little extra pride in beating them.
And no one misses them on Opening Night.
The relatively new tradition of the defending champion playing, at home, to open the season is nice in concept. And, until recently, it was good in execution. The home team fared well in most of these Conference Championship rematches. Still, any hiccup was national news. Like when the Patriots were carved open by the Kansas City Chiefs, last year.
Did it matter? Not at all. New England only went 13-2 in the games that followed, and tacked on another two playoff wins en route to a Super Bowl appearance. But, it opens questions. The Patriots were fortunate enough to have all the answers.