It’s one of my favorite traditions, even though it always ends with me shaking my head and wondering what on earth I was doing. Although, this year, it means a little more.
The Super Bowl is the obsession of the sports media and sports fan for two weeks, and rightfully so. But, there is only so much football to discuss. Only so much analysis. Because, how much action can be crammed into a 60-minute window? And, there will only be 60 minutes – hint, hint. Or so I think. Or so I hope.
I am proud of my consistent success against-the-spread on a yearly basis, but I genuinely enjoy writing there articles about the prop bets. Is my track record in this area good? Not even close. Not here. But it is fun amidst the stress.
The irony is that, with sports betting legal in New Jersey, I probably have to care a little more about my prediction of Adam Levine’s shoe color or Gladys Knight’s National Anthem. Obviously, there is serious analysis to be done.
With that being said, we lead with our usual disclaimer. The prop bets below are compiled from different websites, and the opinions given is purely satirical. Do not use this as advice, in any way.
Coin Toss – Heads or Tails
I still find it amazing every time I hear that the coin toss is one of the most picked anythings in the world. I get the fun of it – as this entire article is based more on fun than analysis – but it can’t be anything more than that, right? I’m sure it is to some people, as the battle of the two sides each have their own reasoning – ranging from a particular pick being “due” to the common phrase of “Tails never fails”. I think I pick ‘Heads,’ every year, so there is no reason to deviate.
Prediction: Heads
How long will it take Gladys Knight to sing the National Anthem? Over/Under 1 minute 50 seconds
One that I do pick the same, each time, is the length of the National Anthem. I am devoted to the argument that people expect the song to be longer than it is, and they expect the singers to ‘milk’ it, so the over/under already accounts for this. It happens a lot more often than I would like to admit, but few things get me more excited than yelling “cut it short” at the television.
Prediction: Under
Will Gladys Knight kneel during the National Anthem? Yes (+150)/No (-200)
Umm…did I miss something? Is this actually a possibility? Comparatively speaking, it is less likely that a player kneels than Gladys Knight. Maybe she went on record and said that she would, or maybe there is a ton of information somewhere that I’m missing, but for such relatively decent odds, I would love to take advantage of this one. I expect no surprises.
Prediction: No
Will the two-minute warning hit with exactly 2:00 on the game clock? First Half Odds: Yes (-670)/No (+400), Second Half Odds: Yes (-400)/No (+275)
Here’s a new one for me. I just saw there are two separate picks for the two-minute warning landing exactly on the right time. Is this likely? No, and the odds support that. But both odds are so heavily underdogs on the side of “no” that it is wise to pick “no” for both halves and aim to win one.
Prediction: No for at least one of the two halves, with the second half being more likely
Will there be overtime? Yes (+900)/No (-2000)
It’s a ‘trap.’ I don’t like making the pick because the odds are so lopsided but, if you must…
Prediction: No
What color will Adam Levine’s shoes be at the start of the Halftime Show? White (+120)/Black (+300)/Brown (+700)/Blue (+1000)/Red (+1000)/Orange (+1200)/Yellow (+1200)/Green (+2000)/Purple (+2000)/Pink (+2500)
I did a quick Google search and got back some surprisingly promising results. The first few images were of black shoes and, since the internet doesn’t lie, I have to go with the first results. It helps that the odds are not too impossible to hit
Prediction: Black
What color will the liquid be that gets dumped on the winning coach? Clear/Water (+200), Yellow (+300), Orange (+350), Green (+300), Blue (+500), Red (+700), or Purple (+1000)
I have a little different view on the Gatorade shower, this year. Normally, I pick red because of the image of bloodshed after a battle – I have issues, I know – but this year, there were ‘boosts’ attached to blue. That feels like a ‘trap’ to me, so I can safely eliminate one option from my list. Because the odds are so extreme – even the favorite is an underdog in terms of odds – I will still pick red because I won’t be able to live with myself if it finally happens and I missed it, but I’m leaning toward yellow and orange. I feel like there are rarely upsets in the Gatorade shower, but I’m taking a risk avoiding water.
Prediction: Yellow or Red
How many times will Tony Romo say, “Here we go” during the broadcast? Over/Under 2.5
I used to think that broadcasters always slip into their common patterns, no matter the game, but the Super Bowl does tend to limit these. With that, the ‘under’ seems to win more often than not. But, I suspect Tony Romo is an exception, as he has been the exception to most broadcasting rules since he was hired.
I’ll end this otherwise crazy column with a few semi-actual picks that I like. Since there are some nice promotions for player props, I’ll throw out a few that appear to have some value. I like each of these because of the odds:
Tom Brady UNDER 299.5 Passing Yards (+100) – In 18 games, this year – including the playoffs – the Patriots scored at least 30 points nine times. In those same 18 games, Tom Brady threw for more than 300 yards seven times. In other words, Brady reaching 300 yards happens less often than New England scoring 30 points, and this milestone was reached in less than half of his games.
James White OVER 18.5 Rushing Yards (+105) – James White is known for his prowess as a receiver – and there is always the option to pick his total yards of both rushing and receiving – but one or two decent runs would put him over the low total. Of course, he needs the carries, but one drive in which New England commits to White in the backfield can get him there.
Jared Goff OVER 7.5 Rushing Yards (-134) – Jared Goff is not known for his legs, but the quarterback has converted a few critical plays by forgoing the pass and running for a first down. I’m banking on the fact that Goff will both be under pressure at a critical point in the game and resort to what has worked in the past.
Rob Gronkowski UNDER 50.5 Receiving Yards (+115) – It is totally plausible that Rob Gronkowksi reverts to his dominant form in the Red Zone, and he might grab a pass in the middle of the field during the course of the game, but I’m picking against the likelihood of this happening more than once. The odds make this one of the more rewarding picks, if it works.
Rams/Patriots UNDER 55.5 Points (-110) – Since the teams were set, the over/under always gave the impression that it was protecting against a high-scoring outburst. And, since that time, the total has gone down. It feels a little too easy to see what the Patriots have done over their last two games and connect the dots for another explosion, but the number shrinking has helped confirm my initial thoughts.
Either team to win by exactly three points (NO: -500) – The odds are terrible, but one of my favorite picks of the day is that the game should not be settled by three points. Both head coaches are aggressive at the right time, and I am expecting at least one team to attempt a two-point conversion. In addition, since I am looking for the game total to stay relatively low, it would have to happen with field goals. The scoring gets shuffled a bit if touchdowns and field goals are not equal. Finally, with the Super Bowl always drawing attention to the final score because of pools featuring boxes, it’s not uncommon for wacky scores to deliver.