I think there’s been a mistake.
We are about to watch the biggest game of the NFL season. The one that will be the sole talk-of-the-town for the two-week lead-up period and will remain the topic of conversation afterwards. It will grab the attention of people who barely care about the sport of football, including those who were suddenly experts on pass interference calls and how to handle them. But, most importantly, the grand event that is the Super Bowl will bring with it people’s money in the form of wagers.
And an incredible amount of it, at that.
Consider that, one year ago, people could not legally place a sports bet in New Jersey. An entire state – along with anyone from New York that is close enough to make the trip over the Hudson River – is now opened to this experience, and it means the opportunity for gains-and-losses are even greater than they have been in the past.
And still, I think there’s been a mistake.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 63-48-4 (Last Week: N/A)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 137-117-12 (Last Week: 1-1)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Super Bowl LIII – New England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams
When it comes to my picks, the spread is always the most important indicator. It combines what we know about two teams, their expected gameplans, and the perception of the football-watching world into one number. It’s what many analytical-driven fans and experts try to do with players, but those who set the odds have nailed this art so much for teams that it is basically a science.
My job has always been to take the number of points given from one team to another and analyze it against all other factors and expectations. This has many different approaches, ranging from predicting what I personally think the spread should be to how undervalued or overvalued a team is. In the end, the success is built not upon how well a team played, but how well the story the spread told was read.
The Super Bowl is, obviously, at the forefront of this world, and one of the most powerful reasons is the set of games that led to this point. No matter which two teams are still alive in the chase for a title, we have already seen them play at least twice in the postseason. It’s a small sample size, but it’s enough to form an opinion in an extended period of rest between the Conference Championships and the Super Bowl. And, if said opinion is wrong, we won’t know until the game is played.
The few weeks of the postseason are, indeed, more than enough time for opinions to change, and the New England Patriots are the perfect example of this. Before the playoffs began, New England was not the favorite to win the Super Bowl – in stark contrast to previous years. In fact, the Patriots had only the fourth-best odds. The three other teams ranked higher than New England all played in the Conference Championships. Furthermore, the Patriots were not nearly as heavily favored as they should have been against the Chargers in the Divisional Round, and traveled to Kansas City as underdogs in the AFC Championship Game. These produce three separate times that New England was undervalued.
And New England is almost never undervalued.