For the past few seasons, I have debated whether-or-not I should comb through each playoff team and break down its chances to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in early February. And, every year, I find myself writing notes to myself that turns into a column for my readers.
This year, I didn’t bother playing this mental game. As soon as the regular season ended, I found a list of odds for the teams in the playoffs and started taking a ‘big picture’ approach. As always, this ties into my Wild Card Weekend picks, since many of the numbers are based on initial matchups, so I would advise anyone to read both articles concurrently and to draw any conclusions about which picks have the best value.
As for the overall postseason race, I refuse to waver from my position that outstanding quarterback play is what wins in January. Period. There are exceptions to this rule, but many are either outdated – I constantly hear the argument of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, but I then remind people that this example is nearly two decades old – or misunderstand the message.
Teams don’t always, 100 percent of the time, need an outstanding quarterback, but they need outstanding quarterback play. Obviously, having a great passer helps achieve this goal, but Nick Foles is the prime example of a quarterback who isn’t outstanding having an outstanding day. The focus, therefore, will almost always be on the players who are capable of lifting their team in each one-and-done scenario. Often, this involves making the critical throw with the game on-the-line.
NFL Odds to Win Super Bowl LIII – Courtesy of Vegas Insider:
1st Seed – New Orleans Saints (2.5 to 1)
1st Seed – Kansas City Chiefs (4.5 to 1)
2nd Seed – Los Angeles Rams (5 to 1)
2nd Seed – New England Patriots (6 to 1)
3rd Seed – Chicago Bears (8 to 1)
4th Seed – Baltimore Ravens (14 to 1)
5th Seed – Los Angeles Chargers (16 to 1)
3rd Seed – Houston Texans (25 to 1)
4th Seed – Dallas Cowboys (25 to 1)
5th Seed – Seattle Seahawks (25 to 1)
6th Seed – Indianapolis Colts (25 to 1)
6th Seed – Philadelphia Eagles (25 to 1)
Below are my predictions and expectations for the 2018 NFL Playoffs, based on the odds listed above.
I usually start with the teams I have to cross off my list because they don’t fit the mold of my introductory paragraph. That is, they don’t have a quarterback that will make the throw with the season on-the-line. Of the twelve playoff teams, the Baltimore Ravens probably have the least capable quarterback of delivering through-the-air. Does this mean the Ravens have no chance at winning the Super Bowl? No, not necessarily, and rank higher than Houston and Dallas, neither of which have a better seed than Baltimore. But it would require such an uncharacteristic surge that I couldn’t predict it to happen in good conscious. The good news for Baltimore is that its defense is so outstanding that it could beat every team it would face in the AFC playoffs. And, if it does, it would certainly send shock-waves throughout the copycat National Football League and we would see an influx of defensive-minded gameplans in the near future. Fear not, the state of the league fights against this for a long period of time.
I’ll lump the next three teams in the same category