Last year, this full season prediction column – split into AFC and NFC, like always – included eight over/under win-total plays. These picks went 7-1 and generally have a great track record. The same number of picks is found between the AFC and NFC previews, with a full breakdown for each time.
Below are the full season predictions for the 2018 National Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable:
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles – 6-10, 4th in NFC East – Under 10 Wins
I’m never against selling the popular teams, but I am tripping over myself to get to a keyboard fast enough to pick against the Philadelphia Eagles. Another one of my favorite longterm plays from last year – the combination of Carson Wentz and his offensive line made for the perfect, sneaky pick – the Eagles are vastly different from last year to now. How is this possible, if much of the talent has remained intact?
Carson Wentz is not healthy. I know, Nick Foles is about as good a backup quarterback as a team could fathom, let alone have under contract. And I also know what he did in last year’s Super Bowl. I have eyes. But, so do 31 other teams. Over a few months of an offseason, that is more-than-enough time to pick apart Foles’ game and learn exactly why he was a backup and not a starting quarterback, all along.
What Foles did in Super Bowl 52 was nothing short of astounding. But, as I wrote in the introduction of my quarterback preview column, it was completely uncharacteristic. These types of unstoppable runs can happen in short bursts, but they are not sustainable.
Nick Foles winning games as a starting quarterback is not sustainable. Of course, if Wentz were 100 percent healthy and started all 16 games, we can have another conversation. This is not the case. Playing and playing completely healthy are two different things, and Wentz will not be playing healthy for all 16 games of a season in which all 16 games are incredibly important.
The Eagles are falling into an obvious trap of paying for past performances at the risk of future results. They see what Foles did – and can do – and conclude that it is a likely continuation. It isn’t. Not to the tune of double-digit wins, anyway.
The Eagles fall back hard in the absence of Wentz, and will look to regroup after this upcoming season. We also have a great opportunity to benefit from this fall.
Dallas Cowboys – 7-9, 3rd in NFC East
I see a lot of the Carolina Panthers – to be discussed later – in the Dallas Cowboys. That is, both teams soar to victories when doing well, but fail to break through walls when presented with one.
The Cowboys had no problem cruising to a division title in 2016 with low expectations and a backup-turned-starting quarterback. But, with an offseason to prepare against said quarterback, teams found ways to limit his output.
To Dallas’ credit, the team still put together a winning record despite obvious regression and a 13-win division-mate in Philadelphia. For that reason, a rebound from higher highs would lead to a fantastic encore.
It won’t happen. The fear of buying into quarterback Dak Prescott after his rookie season was not due to the growing pains necessary for a young player, but the flaws in his game from the beginning. He’s good, but he appeared to be great because teams could not stop an offense built around outstanding lineman and a top-notch running back. Once it became possible to beat either the offensive line or the running back, the quarterback was usually left-for-dead.
Dallas’ offensive line and running back still remain great, on paper, but injuries are starting to become a problem – as they usually do over prolonged stretches of time. The Cowboys haven’t done enough to prove they can win in all conditions, a necessity for playing at a high level over many years.
Please register or login to read the rest of the article.