Everything comes and goes in waves. Maybe it’s because it’s a copycat league. Or the over-correction from one side allows the other to recover. Whatever it is, we are in the cycle in which offenses dominate.
Except, this is the way it should be.
Of course, there are exceptions to every rule, and that’s what helps keep said rules in check. But, while much of the past results can be analyzed from either camp, it will be difficult to argue that anything other than an offensive-driven team will hoist the Lombardi Trophy in a few weeks. The four highest-scoring organizations in the league, this year, are the final four teams in the postseason – as well as the top seeds in each conference.
As I have written for years, this is not an accident. The league has intentionally changed rules to benefit offenses and, those teams that can take advantage are the ones most poised for success. Can a ‘sleeper’ slip through the cracks? Certainly. But, this season is continuing to prove how difficult it is to fight the momentum. Our job is to put ourselves in the best position to succeed when the tide moves in our favor.
This year, that’s exactly what has happened.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 63-48-4 (Last Week: 2-0)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 136-116-12 (Last Week: 4-0)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
The only problem with the New Orleans Saints as they entered the postseason was the question of whether-or-not they were ‘too obvious.’
As favorites to win the Super Bowl before the playoffs began – and with possibly the easiest road to get there – the Saints were the team that had everything we would want in a future champion. The quarterback and head coach had previously won a title, while the defense is far better than it had been in years. Everything was aligned for New Orleans to show up, take care of business and, as the reports suggested, win three games.
Everything except resistance.
I picked the Saints to win outright, but lose against the spread, last week, largely because anything that is a foregone conclusion is rarely a forgone conclusion. The spread was always going to be in jeopardy because of a dangerous combination: New Orleans was ‘safe,’ and it was about to face the inexplicable.
As stated in last week’s column, the Saints were set to host quarterback Nick Foles and whatever ‘magic’ he was wielding that refused to knock the Eagles out of the playoffs. Had this continued, it would have marked the second consecutive season in which New Orleans was devastated in a manner that defies reasonable expectations – last year, in the form of an impossible catch-and-run by Minnesota’s Stefon Diggs as time expired. And, when Saints quarterback Drew Brees’ first pass attempt was intercepted and the Eagles subsequently jumped out to a 14-0 lead, the feeling that New Orleans was going to let another ideal situation slip through its fingers was palpable.
And then it didn’t happen.