Last year, this full season prediction column – split into AFC and NFC, like always – included eight over/under win-total plays. These picks went 7-1 and generally have a great track record. The same number of picks is found between the AFC and NFC previews, with a full breakdown for each time.
Below are the full season predictions for the 2018 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills – 4-12, 4th in AFC East
The Buffalo Bills were locked in a battle with the Baltimore Ravens in last year’s full season prediction article. The two were my final options for the second Wild Card spot, and I incorrectly chose Baltimore.
My argument for the Bills, however, was that the franchise was on-the-rise and the hiring of head coach Sean McDermott would eventually lead to success. Eventually.
The tables have now turned, as the future arrived a bit too quickly in Buffalo for my liking. The Bills did make the playoffs in 2017, but are now in position to regress dramatically.
I was never a fan of Tyrod Taylor but, apparently, neither was this current regime in Buffalo. In the middle of a playoff push, the Bills benched Taylor so they could see what Nathan Peterman had to offer. It turns out, his offerings were all for the other team. This insane decision almost cost Buffalo the Wild Card, in the end. Instead, it confirmed that the franchise was still looking for its quarterback.
I give credit to Buffalo for being aggressive in correcting its flaws via A.J. McCarron – I actually like McCarron in small bunches – and drafting Josh Allen, but the Bills might have made moves for the sake of making moves. McCarron was already hurt and Allen was considered the most ‘raw’ of the quarterback class. Fear not, as McCarron was subsequently traded to Oakland, leaving Allen and the aforementioned Peterson battling for the starting job.
Essentially, the Bills are in a worse position for 2018 than they were, last year. Maybe the future still is bright in Buffalo, but the growing pains that should have hampered them in 2017 will start to appear shortly.
Miami Dolphins – 7-9, 3rd in AFC East
The Miami Dolphins have sneaky potential to be overlooked, given how they finished last year’s 6-10 campaign with three consecutive losses. Still, I believe head coach Adam Gase is one of the best at his craft, and it is not impossible for him to squeeze a few more wins out of Miami’s roster than one should reasonably expect. After all, quarterback Ryan Tannehill was 8-5 in his thirteen starts under Gase before his injury – the first winning record he held in a season in his entire career.
The problem for Miami is that it is fighting an uphill battle and, although it might be prepared, it is understaffed.
Any rebound for Tannehill from his injury or improvement by the Dolphins, as a whole, will be met by increased competition within the division. Indeed, the Bills should fall to the basement, but the Jets cannot be taken lightly. And, of course, there are the Patriots looming.
2018 will set the stage for Miami’s future – especially at the quarterback position – but the present is still bleak.
New York Jets – 10-6, 2nd in AFC East, Wild Card Berth – Over 6 Wins