We did it!
We have reached the midpoint of the 2017 NFL season. But, more specifically for this column, we have reached the midpoint of our ‘Rebound Season.’
At the time of this writing, these picks sit atop the leaderboard at NFLPickwatch.com – there appears to be a few picks missing, but the winning percentage is still tied for the best among experts. This is, after all, the position where this column finished in both 2014 and 2015 – then, with XN Sports. A wild, poor 2016 sent panic waves for many, but it was ill-advised. 2016 was a down year for the entire industry. It was dominated by favorites and ‘easy plays,’ none of which are sustainable.
Of course, I type these words with the risk of getting ahead of myself. We are only halfway through the season. We know how fickle the National Football League can be, and a sudden losing week is always a possibility. But, the goal is to slowly and steadily produce winning sets of picks. Halfway through the year, that’s exactly what has happened..
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 25-20-2 (Last Week: 3-2)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 66-48-5 (Last Week: 7-6)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
This is not the first time I’ve typed these words, but the need to do so keeps arising.
The New York Jets are not a good football team.
There is a problem, however. The Jets don’t know they are not a good football team.
Let’s give credit where credit is due. The Jets are truly one of the least talented squads in the National Football League, but they refuse to let it pull them under. They compete in nearly every game, and it has helped carry them to a 5-2-1 record against-the-spread – according to some websites. That number is outstanding, and it is further proof that the team is continually outperforming its low expectations.
The Jets entered 2017 with the potential to have a winless season and are infinitely ahead of such a pace. But, the Bills had a slightly higher floor. And they are blowing past it. As a result, Buffalo enters Week 9 with the best record against-the-spread in the league. It is the only team to have just one against-the-spread loss. Which, of course, means that more will be arriving soon. With the understanding that a regression is likely for both teams – but more likely for Buffalo – let’s take a practical look at the spread.
Buffalo just acquired Kelvin Benjamin at the Trade Deadline – although he is currently not expected to play on Thursday – which should bolster the season outlook – and, at least, the message from the front office that the team is in a ‘win-now’ mode. The Bills have won four-of-their-last-five games, and just completed a 20-point victory against Oakland.
The Jets just lost, again – make that three-in-a-row for New York – but competed, again. Beautifully, New York failed to beat the four-point spread on Sunday, losing by five points.
The directions of the two teams playing on Thursday Night Football are pointing away from one another, but the spread is not. It is small. It is tantalizing.
It is a ‘trap.’
Buffalo will host New Orleans next week, making Thursday night the team’s only road game in a four-game span. The Jets are playing their second consecutive home game, and third in the last four weeks. They lost the previous two. Most importantly, the true value statistics of yards-per-game averages lead to a far closer matchup than many would think. The spread agrees.
The Jets are 23rd in offensive yards-per-game and 26th in defensive yards-per-game. That isn’t great. But, Buffalo ranks 25th and 22nd in the same categories, respectively. It’s hard to believe, but there is nothing spectacular about the Bills. Except, of course, their ability to pull out wins.
Thursday Night Football may not feature the most glamourous of teams, but it will be a hotly-contested divisional battle between two squads outperforming their preseason pace. Buffalo wins by a single point, but New York beats the spread.
Prediction: New York Jets (+3.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Unless said quarterback is of the caliber of Aaron Rodgers or the like, I usually separate him from the pick for a singular game. Such is the case for the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, as they should have Joe Flacco back under center, but it won’t matter for the outcome.
Tennessee enters the week tied for first place in the division – actually, it has the tiebreaker via a head-to-head victory over the Jaguars – and returning from a bye. It is important to not take the Titans’ record as a true resume and, instead, look at how they have reached this point. Specifically, let’s acknowledge that Tennessee has not played well recently.
A blowout loss in Houston and an inexcusable defeat in Miami were slightly erased when the Titans won by two touchdowns against the Colts the following week. The issue is that Tennessee was locked in a hotly contested battle with Indianapolis, and pulled away late, with the last seven points coming from a meaningless, long touchdown run. Finally, the Titans needed overtime to knock off the winless Browns in a game that included a combined seven field goals and no touchdowns.