What has made the 2017 season one of the best in terms of picking games is not necessarily the adherence to trends that were so blatantly ignored last year, but the storylines that appear on a weekly basis. For each set of games, we can find an accurate, common theme. In Week 7, it was ‘overreactions’ – and it worked, as we turned in a fantastic 9-4-2 week against-the-spread. Prior to that, it was a boatload of massive spreads.
What, then, do we find in Week 8?
Soon, we will turn to playoff positioning. We can determine which teams are separating themselves from the pack and which are shuffling around in the standings. But, as we approach the midpoint of the season for many teams, we can look back at the body-of-work that leads each to a makeshift ‘halftime.’ And, as always, we can compare each team against its prior perceptions by looking at records against-the-spread.
We can identify which teams are still providing value. Indeed, we are seven weeks into the season. Still, the football-watching world has not kept pace.
Let’s look to stay ahead.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 22-18-2 (Last Week: 2-3-1)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 59-42-5 (Last Week: 9-4-2)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
With the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens both residing in divisions typically dominated by powerhouses – the Patriots and Steelers, respectively – it is no surprise that the two teams will meet for the fourth consecutive season – as placement in the standings drive conference matchups. The pseudo-rivalry has been one-sided, however, as Baltimore is 3-1 in these games. The only loss was by a mere two points.
Before we can turn to recent history for help on Sunday, we need to dissect each team in 2017.
Baltimore enters Week 8 at 3-4 and ranked second-to-last in offensive yards. Its defense started the season on a high note, but has since slipped. What’s most concerning is that the Ravens allowed 27 points to a Bears team led by a rookie quarterback. Whatever has struck Baltimore, it is responsible for a 1-4 skid over the last five weeks.
Miami travels to Baltimore via an opposite path. It has now won three consecutive games and sits at an impressive 4-2. It even completed an late-game comeback against a division rival in which the team’s starting quarterback was injured. It does, however, sit in last place in offensive yards gained, and averages the second-fewest-points-per-game.
Now, we can look back at previous matchups and, conveniently, we find eye-popping value when