It’s happening. It’s as if the chips we have pocketed are finally getting turned in, and results are improving steadily. It’s exciting. It’s rewarding. It’s also extremely dangerous.
We have now turned in back-to-back-to-back winning weeks against-the-spread to start the year and, as a result, we are likely all near the top of any respective point spread pools. Great! We have also seen a barrage of underdogs show up, as expected, and beat their respective spreads. Finally, we saw the last remnants of overreactions and ‘snap judgement’ come to fruition and deliver. They lingered one week longer than they should have, and we capitalized.
Unfortunately, we are reaching a saturation point. The ‘pullback’ will happen soon and some regression will take over. Not necessarily for these picks – as I am specifically proceeding with this in mind – but for the trusted patterns that have worked so well now for three consecutive weeks. It’s natural, and it goes along with how the spreads are displayed.
At the time of this writing, there are seven favorites of at least seven points, but also three with no spread, at all – granted, one is due to an injury. The remaining six games are a spattering of numbers, as the spreads try to find their rightful place amidst early-season chaos.
We strive to do the same, but the turmoil about to strike the games are why it was so imperative to jump out to an early lead in the standings. Thankfully, we are in position to ride out the storm.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 11-8 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 27-19-1 (Last Week: 9-6-1)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Maybe. Just maybe, the Green Bay Packers are flawed.
I know. It seems impossible. They have Aaron Rodgers. He makes ‘Hail Mary’ attempts. And they get caught. Pretty flawless. But, maybe.
Perhaps the bar is set too high. The standards too outlandish. But, through three games, the Packers only rank 15th in points-per-game, have yet to reach 28 points, and only have one 300-yard team passing game – at 308 yards, at that. What’s most amazing about Green Bay is, despite winning two-of-its-three games, it has already amassed the most passing attempts in the sport. This is nothing new for Green Bay, as the Packers finished with the fifth-most passing attempts in 2016. Of course, having Aaron Rodgers under center helps. So does the lack of a running game.
What gets lost in Green Bay’s constant need to take to the air is something I mentioned in last year’s columns, but still holds true today. That is, the Packers need to have longer drives in order to be effective. In 2016, Green Bay ranked fourth in average-time-on-drive, and it is currently ranked second in 2017. Since incomplete passes would stop the clock, a successful drive needs a high number of completions – which leads to more time ticking away. Conversely, short drives will take a limited amount of time and put the ball in opponents’ hands. It’s a good thing for Green Bay that it had the fifth-most completions in the league, last year, and currently has the most through three games.
Chicago is far from the pushover that many expect on a weekly basis, and it showed with an ‘upset’ win in overtime, last week.