It should have ended in Week 2. It didn’t. Let’s be thankful. There is nothing more important in determining picks against-the-spread than perception, and overreactions are the typical driving force. Normally, they fizzle out after a second game.
Not this year. Not yet.
So much momentum was gained in 2016 by teams that didn’t deserve it, and it has captured an entirely new crop of football fans and analysts who believed last year was the norm. We know better. 2016 was an exception in almost every single way, but those who are short-sighted bought into the lessons they learned over seventeen weeks of unsustainable football. This is evident by the wild predictions at the start of this season that basically mirrored exactly what last year produced.
“The Giants are a playoff team.”
“The Cowboys are unstoppable.”
“The Texans will win the AFC South, again.”
What’s most amazing about these ill-conceived beliefs is that some have not yet been abandoned. And, those that have are selling hard.
Smart investors don’t buy stocks after a massive rise, especially if history doesn’t sustain it. Yet, the unsustainable was all that anybody knew after a season that completely tore apart the history books. It was as if a new league formed in 2016 that disregarded its ancestors. Therefore, the believers of ’16 knew nothing besides a 13-3 Cowboys team, an 11-5 Giants campaign, and an AFC South that only belonged to Houston.
Now that the pieces are starting to fall back into place, people are left scrambling to determine what’s real and what isn’t. Are the Giants closer to 0-2 or 11-5? Might the 2017 Cowboys lose more games by Halloween than they did all of last year? Do the Texans have any answers?
These violent swings are what we want. A team’s future is relatively clear if we look at it objectively and push aside any strong pull – up or down. It’s why I frequently cite my preseason AFC and NFC predictions. Months of research should not be undone in a few short weeks of play.
By defining the foundation for each team, it becomes easier to gauge how far they are beginning to stray. But, such foundations are shaky when built upon only last year’s results. Basically, an 0-2 Giants team appears catastrophic for those who predicted a 12-4 campaign – there were many – but is on the path to a more reasonable 7-9 expectation.
The ‘correction’ will continue throughout 2017, and we are already seeing it in the early stages of the season. Normally, we don’t get overreactions that last into Week 3, but there are still too many histories that rewrote themselves after the exception that was the 2016. The rules will take over, once again.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 7-6 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 18-13 (Last Week: 9-7)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
With no team in the division above .500 and the Cardinals and Seahawks struggling mightily in the first two weeks of the season, a frightening question needs to be asked, “Are the Rams the best team in the NFC West?”
They fail the eyeball test, as neither Jared Goff – averaging 265 yards and one touchdown per-game – nor Todd Gurley – averaging only 64 rush-yards-per-game – are performing at a division-winning level. They fail the consistency test, as an impressive rout of the hapless Colts was quickly erased by a Week 2 home loss at the hands of the Redskins. And they fail the statistical test, where the combined record of their previous opponents is now 1-3, with the Rams providing the lone win at their own expense.
Despite the many boxes left unchecked in Los Angeles’ favor, the team finds itself in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC West and about to play its first division matchup of the year. A win – especially since it would begin the week – would give the Rams sole possession of first place at 2-1 with a 1-0 division record. With a trip to Dallas next on the schedule and two more division games against the Seahawks and Cardinals in the following three matchups, Los Angeles would need to assert itself, now.
Such a move, however, would overlook the San Francisco 49ers. It would take a team that almost beat the Seahawks in Seattle and cast them aside because, at the end of the day, it is still 0-2 with a combined 12 points scored. We cast aside nothing.