Let’s not be fooled.
Week 1 is always one of my favorites. There is literally an entire offseason to prepare for it, and most of the picks are made for me by the time I sit down to type out the explanations – they are directly related to the season-long AFC and NFC predictions columns I already wrote.
Then, the players take the actual field. And everything changes.
For everyone else.
As much as I love Opening Day, Week 2 might actually be my favorite of the year. Perception – the most important barometer when picking against-the-spread – shifts instantly for each team following only 60 minutes of on-field action, and it negates the months of front office and roster changes that led us to this point. Most importantly, all expectations for the teams are thrown out as soon as the record shifts from 0-0, and only a single number in the win or loss column defines that team.
We know better. We take advantage of such moments.
The Patriots are still a double-digit win team – and, if anything, now should play no worse than .667 football for the rest of the year. The Chargers are not pushovers, and the Rams and Bills are not suddenly favorites to win their respective divisions. And those conclusions are only drawn from comparing records. Things really get interesting when we start looking at the final scores of the games. Still, overreactions occur immediately throughout the football-watching world, and we have a front-row view of the chaos.
It is our job to determine which takeaways from Opening Day are legitimate.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 4-3 (Last Week: 4-3)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 9-6 (Last Week: 9-6)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
We all saw. We all know. Tom Savage is not fit to be the starting quarterback of the Houston Texans. It only took one half of dismal play for Texans head coach Bill O’Brien to see it, too. One half too many.
The fact that O’Brien and the Texans’ brass needed to see a 7-for-16 disaster from Savage that included six sacks – not all of which were his fault – before making the switch is further proof that Houston is spiraling out-of-control. Don’t believe the facade of back-to-back 9-7 seasons.
Finally, the Texans made the only move they could. That is, Houston will start Deshaun Watson at quarterback on Thursday. Sounds good, right? Better than Savage, yes.
Not better than Cincinnati.