One week from now, we will be tearing our hair out trying to determine which teams will play their starters and which will be looking to see some youth on the field. Motivation will drive nearly every decision, but we won’t exactly know which team is properly motivated.
Unfortunately, with so many playoff races concluding before the end of the calendar year, the questions normally asked in Week 17 are being pushed forward. Now, still with two games remaining, we need to consider the possibility that a team has, essentially, given up. It’s dangerous. But it’s necessary.
It’s also the reason we have a whopping seven games with spreads of nine or more points.
Will the Colts compete with the Ravens? How will the Packers respond to being eliminated from playoff contention? Will the Chiefs bury the Dolphins or is there still a cause for concern?
These are the questions to ask. It doesn’t even address half of the games with lopsided spreads.
The nature of Week 16’s matchups between franchises heading in opposite directions also forces us to rethink some rules we would otherwise not break. I love to take points when given the option, but we need to be prepared for all outcomes, this weekend. Rules must be bent.
It is, after all, a different type of week. There is no Thursday game, nor is there Sunday Night Football. Most of the teams are playing on Christmas Eve, and it is not inconceivable for early struggles to give way to blowouts as players start to look ahead to both the offseason and the holidays.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 44-41-4 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 114-101-9 (Last Week: 8-7-1)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Week 16 is full of lopsided matchups and large spreads, and we dive right into the action with Saturday afternoon’s game between the Colts and Ravens. Baltimore is currently in position to secure one of the two AFC Wild Card spots, while the Colts were buried since Opening Day – no, really, they had the worst loss of Week 1 in and never fully recovered.
The massive disparity in both talent and success in 2017 has naturally led to an equally huge spread. It makes sense. Not only are the Ravens motivated, but they are flat-out better. It’s not close.
Baltimore is a prototypical franchise that wants to create an identity and stick with it. Prior to the season, it made moves to solidify an already-solid defense and turn it into a great one. It worked. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league, shut out three different opponents, and held teams to ten points or fewer five times. The Ravens also lead the league in defensive turnovers.
There are