It had to end somewhere. The streak of non-losing weeks had reached mid-November but, alas, in Weeks 11 and 12, the numbers finally caught up. Not just to us, however. And therein lies the value.
For starters, the back-to-back losing weeks only cost us seven games in the record. Still, we sit a whopping 15 games above .500. This is critically important to note because we just held on during a massive downturn in the trends. One that is unavoidable. One that is unsustainable.
Prior to Week 11, underdogs were thriving. This is, not surprisingly, why this column was, too. By the time Monday Night Football began in Week 12, favorites were an absurd 12-3 against-the-spread.
Twelve-and-three. And, without question, a large majority of these twelve wins were considered ‘easy.’ They were popular. They were reminiscent of last year when it was a ‘no-brainer’ to pick the Patriots or against the Browns, every week. But, if we look closer, we can accept that this had to happen. No season can continually be so one-sided. So, favorites won. The ball bounced in that direction.
New England covered by a half-point. So did Tennessee. The Giants gave the Redskins three free points, and Washington covered. Tevin Coleman scored a meaningless touchdown in Atlanta to give the Falcons the cover. And Joe Mixon pushed the Bengals 14 points ahead of the Browns. That these happened at all is acceptable. That they all happened on the same week is simply amazing. Not bad. Just amazing.
In fact, it is a good outcome, because we can now move past the quick-burst of favorites succeeding in the same week. We can target underdogs to make their move, yet again.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 35-31-4 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 92-77-7 (Last Week: 6-10)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
If, nothing else, streaks are eye-opening. They get attention.
When the Dallas Cowboys started winning games in 2016, they snowballed into a downhill machine that would not be stopped. After all, winning covers holes, and the Cowboys never had to consider if they had any, let alone what they were.
One year later, largely driven by a suspension of the team’s star running back, the Cowboys are riding a three-game losing streak in which they have failed to score ten points each time. Now, not only are the holes visible, but they are widening.
What gets lost in the powerful streaks – in either direction – is that everything is highlighted. Not everything is true.
Washington is equally susceptible to streaks, and it has largely made its reputation under quarterback Kirk Cousins due to a four-game winning streak at the end of the 2015 season that led to a playoff berth. We may be nearly two years removed from when the streak began, but it remains the highlight of Cousins’ career in Washington. Since then, his team has been three games above .500 only once, and he has not been back to the playoffs. Yet, the Redskins have neither committed to nor cut ties with Cousins.
On Thursday night, the Redskins and Cowboys will meet in what-will-soon-become a formality. Each at 5-6 and playing in a conference where the NFC South is primed to send three teams to the postseason, the window of opportunity is closing. To make a run, either the Cowboys or Redskins need to use Week 13 as a springboard.
One must go on a winning streak. Or, as a first step, stop its losing streak.
Dallas’ regression has been predictably violent. Few teams enjoy double-digit winning streaks – especially with a rookie quarterback – and follow it up with a season equally as impressive. Dak Prescott began to show cause for concern toward the end of last year, but the bloated record and division title forgave all sins. But, despite shouting this downfall into the wind, there is a limit to what is reasonable to expect.
Three consecutive games of nine points or fewer is not reasonable to expect.
For as high as the Cowboys had flown, last year, they have sunk that deep over the last three weeks. The most recent, however, is the most important.
Last week’s column began with the trio of Thanksgiving games. The middle of these games was the always-popular pre-dinner contest featuring the Dallas Cowboys. In it, Dallas was a small underdog. At the time, this was bait to buy into the Cowboys one last time on national television. When they failed, it wasn’t only noticeable, it was unavoidable to see. Nobody missed what happened to Dallas.
Now, one week later, the Cowboys are small underdogs again. This time, against a Washington team whose ugly win was thoroughly overshadowed by Dallas’ loss. The spread is bait. But, in the opposite direction. It is a reminder of how badly the Cowboys lost in nearly the same situation, last Thursday, and it is daring people to take the same risk, this Thursday. We will.
Washington held an impressive lead against the Saints, but ultimately blew it in heartbreaking fashion. Instead of returning to action and imposing its will on the Giants, it won a sloppy game. Conversely, Dallas just lost to the Falcons, Eagles, and Chargers in subsequent weeks. All three are surging, and the Cowboys happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Dallas gets back in the win column with a home victory on national television, winning by six points and beating the spread.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons
In rolls the hype train. But, from which direction?
When the Vikings and Falcons meet on Sunday, it will be the battle of hot streaks, as Atlanta has won three consecutive games and four-of-its-last-five, while Minnesota is riding a seven-game winning streak that has included two different starting quarterbacks. The shuffling under center has actually been the only part of the winning streak that has involved change. Basically everywhere else, consistency has reigned supreme.
The Vikings have scored at least 20 points in each of their last seven games, and at least 30 points in three-of-their-last-four. They have allowed 17 points or fewer five times in this span. Each of the last seven games also included a margin-of-victory of at least seven points.
Wait.