Time tends to move a bit faster when things are going well.
For the past eleven weeks, I had been so consumed with working toward the goal of getting these picks to their level of success from 2014 and 2015 that the season, itself, has blown right past my eyes. It wasn’t until now, in reflection of my first losing week of the season – I am extremely proud of this – that I can begin to look ahead to how it will close. Which means we can look ahead, beyond this column, to how the teams will close their respective seasons.
The bye weeks are now officially behind us. Every team has ten games under its belt, and the numbers are starting to sort themselves out. As are the playoff positions. And, as it turns out, many of the division leaders are holding dominant leads relative to past seasons. This also means that an abnormally large number of teams are on the brink of elimination. At least, in the division. But, if they lose, the chance to claim a Wild Card berth might still follow.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 32-28-4 (Last Week: 2-3-1)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 86-67-7 (Last Week: 5-8-1)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
We were oh-so-close to watching perfection unfold in Week 11, as the Chicago Bears lined up for a potential game-tying field goal after playing an inspired game against the Lions. The kick missed. Horribly. In fairness, even if it sailed through the uprights, the game would not have ended. The ‘trap’ would not have completely caught the Lions – overtime was still needed. But, for all intents and purposes, the Lions fell asleep and it almost cost them.
If we scan the landscape of both the league standings and schedule, it is easy to see why Detroit overlooked Chicago. The Lions still had a two-game deficit to overcome, it would require beating the Bears and its next opponent – or some combinations of multiple opponents in the future – just to pull even. And why does the “next opponent” hold such sway? Because it is the now-8-2, NFC North-leading Minnesota Vikings.
If we can find excitement in the Lions almost losing to Chicago in Week 11, we must be fair and also find disappointment in the Vikings’ big win against the formerly top-ranked offense from the Rams. Certainly, the Vikings were the pick, last week, but the win comes with a price. It raises the expectations further. It sends a message that “even the best offense in the league can’t break through this wall.” It might be true. But it will be taken as truth after last week’s showing. For this reason, we need to remove recent play from Minnesota’s resume and work solely from an assessment of the isolated squad.
A fairly common phrase thrown around football circles is that “a team hasn’t found its identity.” Absolutely no one can make this claim about the Vikings. Its path to success is paved so clearly that it doesn’t even matter who is driving the car. Minnesota suffocates opponents defensively, and then allows its offense – led by whichever quarterback is both healthy and effective at the time – to take advantage of a defeated team.
What makes the Vikings’ plan-of-attack so special is that it is, currently, not sensitive to a sudden decline. Because the defense is so unflappable, the Vikings will almost always remain in every game – think back to the great defenses of recent years, and how they may not always result in wins, but rarely produce blowout losses. The offense is walking a fine line with Case Keenum at the helm and Teddy Bridgewater active, but talks of a quarterback change are completely silent. They aren’t even whispers. But, what happens when Keenum stumbles? How will the team react at that point?
Make no mistake. A slowdown will arrive. And, when it does, it will be from the offensive side of the ball. But, not yet. Not on Thursday. Not against a Lions team that has now won three consecutive games against the Vikings – and all of them were nail-biters. Minnesota finally brings its best team to the table on Thanksgiving, and leaves satisfied with its feast.
Detroit’s offense is well over-extended – fifth in points-per-game, but 15th in yards-per-game – while the Vikings’ offense is tilted in the other direction – with the fifth-most yards-per-game, it will keep delivering. The Vikings set the numbers straight with a four-point victory, covering the spread.
Confidence Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)*
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys
We are absolutely walking a fine line with the Los Angeles Chargers. The team just completed one of the most dominant performances of Week 11 and now finds itself as a slight favorite on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. We are thrust into a difficult position. Do we buy into the Chargers’ blowout win or do we consider it a referendum on how weak the Bills are?
Furthermore, what do we make of Dallas? Is last week’s dismantling at the hands of the Eagles the reason for the Cowboys sitting as home underdogs on Thursday? Or is it nothing more than poor play?
As I have argued on countless occasions, the Chargers were only a few plays – really, missed field goals – away from displaying a winning record. Instead, at 4-6, Los Angeles is now thrust into a position where it cannot afford to lose a game.
If we go through the numbers and find the strengths and weaknesses of the Chargers, the first that jumps off the screen is Los Angeles’ nonexistent run defense. To date, it has allowed the most yards-per-game and second-most yards-per-rush in the league. But, of course, Dallas’ star running back, Ezekiel Elliott, is still serving his suspension. Alfred Morris is a capable backup, but he was basically a non-factor against the Eagles as the game got away from the Cowboys. Thursday may not go in the exact same direction as last Sunday, but it is also unlikely that Morris suddenly carries the offense.
The other facet of Dallas’ Week 11 game that doomed the team is similar to what carried Los Angeles to its win: turnovers. The Cowboys turned the ball over four times on Sunday, giving them six in a two-week span. Prior to Week 10, Dallas had a total of eight giveaways on the season. Los Angeles was the major beneficiary of six Buffalo turnovers – which is too high to consider anything but an outlier – but also has nine takeaways over its prior five games.
I posed a series of questions in the introduction to this writeup, and they can all essentially be answered my favorite singular indicator: the spread. The Cowboys are a nationally-recognized team playing arguably the premier regular season game-of-the-year. This is a constant on Thanksgiving. Not only are you aware of it – by being so tuned to the National Football League that you would read a picks column regularly – but your uncles, aunts, cousins, and grandparents are aware of it. Dallas hosts the pre-Thanksgiving-dinner game. It is part of tradition.
Yet, the Cowboys are underdogs.
With the attention of the football-watching world pointed at Dallas, the Cowboys can be bought at a discount. At least, that’s how it appears. Really, the Cowboys are ‘on-sale’ to be made to look more attractive. They are a defective product trying to be moved at a lower price. We won’t bite.
Los Angeles wins by four points and covers the small spread.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers (-1)
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
The trio of Thanksgiving games concludes with a divisional matchup between two NFC East rivals with basically nothing on the line. The Giants are completely irrelevant in the playoff picture and, at 2-8, are only positioning themselves in next year’s draft based on what happens in the final six games. The Redskins will likely need to run-the-table to have a realistic chance at a Wild Card berth because, at 4-6, they likely have suffered too many losses from which they can recover. And, “recover,” they must.
Washington enters Week 12 as the epitome of the ‘bounceback’ candidate after a heartbreaking loss. With just under six minutes remaining in regulation, the Redskins scored another touchdown against the Saints – who were, at the time, riding a seven-game winning streak – extending the lead to 31-16. The Redskins had traveled to New Orleans, held a late lead, and were poised to go home for Thanksgiving with an even – and manageable 5-5 record. Instead, disaster struck from all angles. 15 points in five minutes via two touchdowns and a two-point conversion later, the Redskins had relinquished their lead and were heading to overtime. A few minutes after that, Washington’s collapse was complete.
The Redskins now have the ability to show a national audience that the team of the last six minutes of Week 11 is already forgotten. After all, it has a meeting with the lowly Giants on deck, and it would be wise for the Redskins to win on Thursday night before heading to Dallas next week.