Sometimes I actively seek a given theme for a week. Other times, it finds me.
The undeniable common thread that presents itself throughout Week 10 is the redirection of a team’s path. Simply put, is it more likely to continue sinking – or rising – or is a temporary speed bump ahead? Thankfully, most of the games tend to lean toward the former option, as said speed bump is already behind us.
The pleasant irony of this week’s theme is that it also mirrors this column’s success over the course of the season. Slowly-and-steadily, the picks have performed at or above average for the better part of the first half of the year. A temporary stall – i.e. speed bump – has slowed the ascent, but not caused a downslide – the overall picks still have not experienced a losing week. Now, we can continue upward.
And, we are grateful to be aided by the spreads, themselves, as Week 10 is littered with shifting numbers attempting to keep pace with the ever-changing landscape of the league. This is where we thrive, as we aim to craft the picture before it unveils itself for all to see.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 25-24-3 (Last Week: 0-4-1)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 72-54-6 (Last Week: 6-6-1)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
The Seattle Seahawks continue to hover in a ‘Prove-It’ state. Now trailing the division-leading Rams by a full game, Seattle hits the road after a disappointing home loss in which it allowed a late touchdown. This is not unlike the game prior, in which the Seahawks allowed an unprecedented 38 points. The only difference is that Seattle’s offense bailed out its defense en route to 41 points in a win.
The seesaw of Seattle remains unsettling, and it confirms to the suspicion that, while the team has a tendency to will itself to victory, it is far from perfect. There is virtually no running game of which to speak, and the typically suffocating defense ranks only 13th in the league in yards-per-game. Once again, we are left wondering about the future of the Seahawks. So, we must ask them to ‘prove-it.’
Arizona had made efforts to prove that its 2016 losing record was an aberration, but it was struck with another injury to its quarterback. As proven in the past – and again in Week 9 – Drew Stanton is certainly capable of patching a hole, but he has never been a permanent solution. Now, he and running back Adrian Peterson need to fill the shoes of Carson Palmer and David Johnson, respectively. At 4-4 after a win against the lowly 49ers, the test begins on Thursday night.
Perhaps the Cardinals have more to prove than the Seahawks.
Asking the Seahawks to convince the football-watching world that they are legitimate contenders is not new to this column. I specifically asked this of the organization after the defense collapsed against a rookie quarterback and, while one side of the ball showed up, it wasn’t enough – and it ultimately failed when it mattered most. But, that was after a win. Now, I ask the team to rebound after a home loss.
It isn’t for me. Indeed, I type the words. But, I am only one voice. One pair of eyeballs that will tune in on Thursday night. What about the others? What about the entire country?
If Seattle failed to respond once on a Sunday afternoon, it will not do it twice-in-a-row with the latter on national television. It isn’t the style by which the team operates.
Dating back to Pete Carroll’s first season as head coach of the Seahawks, his team is an absurd 20-3-1 in regular season Primetime games, winning the last five. The Seahawks are also 7-2-1 on the road in this span.
Lost in the focus on the defense and its recent breakdowns is the offense’s quiet surge to the top of the league. It now ranks fourth-best in yards-per-game. Arizona’s defense ranks 27th and 23rd in points and yards allowed, respectively.
The Seahawks win by a touchdown and cover the spread.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
It was nice to not have to worry about the Cleveland Browns for a week. To not have to find a way for the team to beat the spread. To not have to consider the unthinkable act of them actually winning a game. To not have to determine which quarterback will start the next game. To not have to determine which quarterback will finish the next game. All good things must end.
After a week without torture, the Browns are back in action. And, as usual, they bring more uncertainty than clarity. Thankfully, we can answer a few questions on our own based on the ever-growing history of poor play.
Now 1-23 since the start of 2016, the Browns are in a similar position as last year. That is, they are entering the back-half of the season without a single win. Let’s start taking notice now. They will win a game. But, we don’t care about that. We care