It is always interesting how one season spills into the next. Last year, the chalk in any given fractal had success. The favorite – both for the playoffs and the game, itself – won the Super Bowl. The ‘easy’ teams to pick covered nearly every week. They also dominated the season.
Instantly, 2017 was different. Underdogs burst out-of-the-gate and never truly relinquished their against-the-spread hold on the league. Even when they would slip, a recovery was never far behind. And, this scorching hot run – one that we welcome and led us to a nice end-of-season stretch – carried over into the postseason. Based on the spreads used, underdogs are an outstanding 6-2 against-the-spread. In addition, three-of-the-top-five favorites to win the Super Bowl have been eliminated.
The top-two remain alive, however, and they look to take the next step in completing this journey on Sunday.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 53-47-4 (Last Week: 0-1)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 136-117-11 (Last Week: 0-3-1)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
The Jacksonville Jaguars opened eyes, last Sunday. If you had been sleeping on the team or were not completely convinced of its potential after a lackluster 10-3 home win over the Bills – I was guilty of the latter – you are now paying attention. What Jacksonville did to the Steelers in Pittsburgh was nothing short of abuse. In fact, it was equivalent to what has happened to the Jaguars countless times over the last decade of misery. But, the beating, alone, wasn’t shocking. That it was the second time, this year, that the Jaguars marched all over Pittsburgh is what is truly astounding.
Teams adjust. The Steelers didn’t. Or, did they, but the Jaguars still found success?
For a team built on defense – it finished the season ranked second-best in both yards and points allowed – the 45-point outburst from Jacksonville – granted, seven came directly from a fumble that was returned for a touchdown – is inspiring. That it was the third game in which it has scored at least 44 points is downright outstanding. By comparison, the New England Patriots – who finished the season with the second-most points-per-game – broke the 40-point barrier only once, and were capped at 41 as the high-point of the season.
Now that the Patriots have been introduced to this week’s column, let’s see how they arrived at Sunday’s AFC Conference Championship Game.
Unlike the Jaguars, the Patriots appearance in the group of final four teams for a given year is nothing new. In fact, if we scroll back through the last decade of New England teams, it is laughable how similar they are. Prior to this season, the Patriots enjoyed fourteen consecutive double-digit win seasons and eight consecutive playoff appearances. And, this Sunday will mark the seventh consecutive appearance in the Conference Championship.
“Unlike the Jaguars” should be the operative term for the historical reflection of this week’s matchup. The two franchises are polar opposites in terms of success. During those aforementioned eight seasons in which the Patriots reached the playoffs, the Jaguars suffered losing seasons in seven of them, did not have a winning record once, and just snapped a six-year streak of double-digit loss seasons. If we are looking backward to project ahead, the conversation would effectively end as quickly as it began. Of course, we cannot be so naive.
The Jaguars of 2017 operate differently from the iterations we have come to know – and mock. In addition to simply winning games, the Jaguars bring a tough, ‘us-against-the-world’ mentality that we tend to see associated with defensive-minded teams. It is this hard-nosed attitude that generally allows an underrated unit – in this case, the Jaguars’ defense prior to this season – to burst on the scene and single-handedly steal a few wins. It happened, as evidenced by the first time the Jaguars suffocated the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Or the unprecedented eight times – counting the playoffs – that Jacksonville held an opponent to a single-digit point total. It is this edge that always gives a team sneaky value.