Playoff seeding and positioning is always a funny, tricky ordeal. Like many areas of life, it changes with a different viewpoint. What looks appealing from one side might be exactly what the other wants, as well. Naturally, one will be wrong.
The entire AFC playoff field was set prior to New Year’s Day’s full schedule of games, but the matchups would not be decided until later in the afternoon. Undoubtedly, the most appealing destination for a Wild Card team that would need to travel by virtue of not winning its division was Houston. Basically, “If we can’t get a home game, we might as well play the ‘easier’ team on the road.” The other option was a visit to Pittsburgh.
While not nearly as lopsided in competition, the NFC reshuffling was eventually confined to either hosting the Giants or traveling to Seattle. By virtue of securing a home game, the former was the clear choice. Playing against the Seahawks in one of the most intimidating stadiums for a visiting team was the icing on the proverbial cake.
Of course, these preconceived notions are hardly a guarantee for an expected outcome.
Any reader of this column can easily cite ‘perception’ as the most powerful influence for the spreads and how we react to the numbers. Staying ahead of how these perceptions move is one piece of the puzzle, but the other is simply recognizing that something other than on-field talent is influencing both the number of points from one team to another and how the football-watching world actually views said team.
On a week where the spreads appear to be perfectly aligned with the small schedule of games – playoff ‘traps’ are a possibility, but are not presenting themselves, this week – we can specifically dig into why each number lies where it does. This does carry the risk of games being too balanced to hold true value, but it also allows us to pick apart the reasoning behind such spreads.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 50-64-3 (Last Week: 2-5)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 118-130-8 (Last Week: 8-8)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
We begin our Wild Card picks exactly as we began our column. That is, by considering the ramifications of two teams that are likely viewing one another as ‘beatable.’ Evidence could be found in the fact that Saturday afternoon’s matchup between the Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans features the smallest spread of the weekend.
After Houston secured another home, playoff game – for the second consecutive season, despite failing to win double-digit games in either year – the Texans could do nothing to influence the opponent they would face in the first week of the postseason. Locked into the fourth seed in the AFC prior to Week 17, Houston would simply wait for either the Chiefs, Dolphins, or Raiders to decide their own fates.