We are about to reach a tipping point. It may not happen this week, precisely, but it’s coming.
Nearly halfway into the season, we have repeatedly looked back on trends that have produced winners in the past and find that they are flat-out under-performing. Through countless bouts of assessment and re-assessment and re-re-assessment, we continue to conclude that these misses are nothing more than that: anomalies. They don’t redefine trends. Neither do we.
Still, the weeks have ticked away and we have all been subjected to hearing the voices that remind us how ‘easy’ this football season has been. For once, these voices aren’t sarcastic. They are spoken of truth. At least, truth in belief.
This sparked a separate thought. One that emerges almost every season. That is, why are people suddenly of the belief – falsely – that picking games is now easy, especially when these same people have often said the opposite? In fact, we almost always hear an over-abundance of the phrase, “You just can’t figure out the NFL.”
Isn’t that interesting?
The same throwaway line that is used to dismiss picking games by proclaiming that it “cannot be figured out” is now replaced with how many people actually figured it out.
Let’s not be so foolish.
In fact, let’s see what happens when the spreads are basically removed from the games. Is it still simple when no game has a spread of seven points or higher? After all, everything is essentially a toss-up.
Week 8 is the first effort to re-balance a league of against the spread performances that do not align with consistent success. If small spreads don’t do the trick, you can bet another method will be utilized, next week.
The tipping point is coming.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 23-25-1 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 50-55-2 (Last Week: 6-9)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
We know, we know. The games on Thursday Night Football have been criticized for the entire season. It only gets worse in Week 8.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans – two of the league’s basement-dwellers for years – meet in one of the least-anticipated contests of the week.