We pick ourselves up and dive right back into the action. After our worst week of the season for picks against the spread, we are fully prepared to get back on the field and right some wrongs. We aren’t the only ones to be doing so.
Week 6 does not necessarily provide the platform for teams to rebound in the actual standings, but a large number of games feature teams that have been buried by the spreads. Regression and returning to the mean are powerful elements, but they are enhanced when numbers are assigned to teams in games that do not impact the final score – i.e. spreads. Where Week 5 featured two regression-ready teams facing one another on numerous occasions – Atlanta at Denver, for one – Week 6 has significantly more head-to-head matchups of squads on opposing ends of the spread scale.
Surprisingly, given the number of teams poised to play closer games, there are barely any ‘traps’ laid out for Week 6. Instead, we should finally get some competitive football, as the extremists of the league are beginning to stray a bit too far.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 17-17 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 39-38 (Last Week: 5-9)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
In the ever-present search for disconnects, the Broncos and Chargers are about as unshackled by their statistics and perceptions as it gets. Denver, at 4-1, is subtly in the middle of a quarterback controversy, where arguments are frequently made that Trevor Siemian is the best man for the job. San Diego, a complete disappointment at 1-4, has lost all four games by a combined 14 points, and has either led or been in position to tie each game in the waning minutes.
Not only are the Chargers much better than their 1-4 record shows, they are not significantly worse than the Broncos. The same Broncos that will be without head coach Gary Kubiak on Thursday.
The poor outing by backup-turned-starting-quarterback Paxton Lynch in Week 5 appears to lead to the prevailing thought that Lynch is not ready to lead a team, but Trevor Siemian is. Assuming Siemian is healthy, he will be asked to start a Primetime road game against a divisional rival. Again, with a short week of preparation and without a head coach that is currently performing as one of the best in the league.
The Broncos’ offense continues to be a mirage. Despite the ninth-most points in the league for Denver, as a whole, the offense has totaled 400 yards in a game only once and ranks 24th in yards. Certainly, the defense is stifling – fifth in points and sixth in yards allowed, respectively – but the team’s strengths end there. Even the running game – often considered above-average – is an inefficient, volume-driven machine. Despite the eighth-most rushing attempts, the team averages the ninth-fewest yards-per-attempt.
San Diego’s offense will have a mountain to climb on Thursday night, but it is up to the task of outpacing Denver’s unit. The Chargers rank second in the league in points and eighth in total yards. Even if Denver’s defense slows them down, it won’t stop San Diego’s offense entirely.
The Chargers pull off the home upset with a field goal win, beating the spread.
Prediction: San Diego Chargers +3.5
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
It continues to be an ongoing debate about whether or not the Ravens are good. Or are they simply as good as their schedule has allowed? Once 3-0, the Ravens – losers of back-to-back home games – will travel to MetLife Stadium in back-to-back weeks. Talk about an odd scheduling anomaly.