Not quite. After proclaiming in our Week 4 column that underdogs had become over-extended and favorites were about to reclaim some of the glory, the shift occurred. Only in the wrong places. Eight favorites did cover the spread – including all three night games for the first time, this season – but the number should have arguably been higher. The next week or two will help determine if we just saw the beginning of a changing trend – leading to favorites winning some weeks in the near future – or a small ‘reset period’ where underdogs can continue their climb.
After assessing Week 5 against the spread, it appears as if the latter is in the works. The ebb-and-flow from week-to-week has provided a roller coaster effect where teams commonly accepted as ‘good’ – Pittsburgh, Arizona, Carolina, Houston – took a beating, then sorted themselves out in the encore – Pittsburgh and Houston recovered, while Arizona and Carolina continued to fall.
Not surprisingly, the Cardinals and Panthers – yet to overcome early-season woes – carry the largest baggage into Week 5. Concussion protocols for both teams’ quarterbacks put the spreads and projections at risk. We often argue that a single player – even a quarterback, on most teams – is hardly a reason to buy or sell a team, so we will need to approach each game from multiple angles.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 15-13 (Last Week: 2-5)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 34-29 (Last Week: 6-9)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
As noted in the introduction, Carson Palmer’s unknown status during the research phase of this week’s column had put expectations for Thursday night’s game into a state of flux. Thankfully, even before news broke that Palmer would miss the game, our go-to telltale sign had been posted days ago – the spread.
Even without knowing which quarterback will be under center for Arizona, the spread not only opened in the Cardinals’ favor, but moved in their direction. If Palmer was as big of a factor as many like to believe, he was either healthier than we knew or not as important to the Cardinals winning on Thursday as we thought. Whichever the answer, it produces the same result.
Because of Chip Kelly’s unorthodox style of offense, we tend to follow his success rate from his days coaching the Eagles and apply it to San Francisco. Even before we penalize the quarterback position – it appears clear that Blaine Gabbert is a significant step down from Sam Bradford – the head-to-head matchup between Arizona’s Bruce Arians and San Francisco’s Chip Kelly – again, of the Eagles, at the time – has been one-sided. In three meetings, the Cardinals are 2-1 by a combined score of 84-55. Philadelphia’s only win came after a bye week, and the Eagles scored no more than 21 points in any of the matchups. For a team built on offense – Philadelphia ranked in the top-five for points and yards in two-out-of-three seasons with Kelly – an average point total of 18.3 against an opponent is eye-opening.
Now, we can add in the downgrade from Bradford to Gabbert.
San Francisco has amassed the fourth-fewest yards in the league, while allowing the seventh-most on defense. Despite the slow start in the standings, Arizona ranks in the top-eight for yards gained and yards allowed. The Cardinals are ready to return to form. With or without Palmer.
Arizona wins by a touchdown and covers.
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals (-3)
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
It has been circled on every calendar. Highlighted. Starred. Sunday is the return of Tom Brady to the New England Patriots.
Let’s remove all suggestions of a ‘trap’ game or an overlooked opponent and automatically hand New England a win. As far as one-sided affairs go, the Patriots – coming off a home shutout – will beat the Browns. It is neither a shocking statement, nor one that requires an explanation.
The spread, however, is a different story.