We love trends, and two appear to be developing in front of our eyes. Now three full weeks into the 2016 National Football League season, a handful of teams, as usual, have begun to separate from the pack. Not in the sense of running away to a division title, however, but via a team’s record against the spread.
The league, as a whole, has also begun to stray from a set baseline.
For the third consecutive week, underdogs finished with a better collective record against the spread than favorites. It is no surprise, therefore, that we have also turned in three consecutive winning weeks, as this column tends to lean heavily on underdogs throughout the course of the season.
Depending on what website is used – and when the spreads are recorded – underdogs are currently thriving with a 31-17 record. As much as we would love to milk the proverbial cow forever, it will eventually run out. We will have to adjust.
Thankfully, Week 4 affords us such an opportunity. A league-wide failure by favorites, last week, presents massive ‘bounceback’ potential in the encore. Conveniently, a handful of these teams are paired with early-season over-achievers, allowing for spreads too small for the expected outcome.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 13-8 (Last Week: 5-2)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 28-20 (Last Week: 10-6)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
As unpredictable as the National Football League appears, as a whole, the Miami Dolphins exemplify its nature arguably more than any other team. After an inspired second-half comeback in Week 2 against the Patriots, the Dolphins laid a complete egg at home against the Browns. There are too many horrific details to name without inducing vomit, and Miami escaping with a win has fooled nobody.