It is only fitting for one of the wackiest NFL seasons in recent memory to conclude with a few wacky scheduling quirks – and, by extension, oddities against the spread. After this week, a full ‘Sunday’ schedule of games will be played on Saturday – Christmas Eve – followed by the new standard of division-only games on New Year’s Day. With arguably the last ‘normal’ week in front of us, we find that there is absolutely nothing ‘normal’ about it.
Three games feature double-digit spreads, while 14 of the 16 matchups pair two teams within the same conference against each other. Playoff positioning – and clinching scenarios – can be found in nearly every matchup and we are, once again, in store for another fantastic slate of games. The interesting twist, therefore, is the timing of such games.
Three-of-the-four Primetime games – four because the Jets and Dolphins square off on Saturday night – include spreads of at least six points. Meanwhile, ‘traps’ are strewn throughout Sunday’s action, where there are simply far too many for every team to escape. Pinpointing which will hit is always the key to success, but we are finally entering a week that does not shy away from ‘traps.’
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 42-49-3 (Last Week: 2-4-1)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 95-106-7 (Last Week: 6-9-1)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Not again. Not this time.
As major supporters of division underdogs with a propensity to complete ‘upsets,’ we tend to lean on the Rams whenever they play a game within the NFC West. And why not? Los Angeles not only beat the spread when it last faced the Seahawks, but actually won the game outright. This is nothing new for the Rams, as they have now beaten Seattle three consecutive times, despite wildly different overall records.
The streak ends now.
Seattle has oscillated between playing like the best team in football and failing to show up to game, altogether. Borrowing the theme of a common adage, the Seahawks are neither 40-7 winners nor 38-10 losers, every week. Thankfully for 8-4-1 Seattle, it doesn’t land right in the middle of its last two games. It is much closer to the higher end of the scale. And the Rams are much closer to the lower end of the scale.
Arizona’s loss in Miami in Week 14 puts Seattle one win away from clinching the division and guaranteeing itself a home playoff game. After missing the opportunity to secure the NFC West when traveling to Green Bay to face a desperate Packers team, the Seahawks will not let it escape them on Thursday.
Last week’s matchup in Green Bay helped highlight the loss of Earl Thomas and his importance to the Seahawks’ defense, but Los Angeles’ offense is not at all capable of taking advantage. If the Rams couldn’t find the end zone against one of the worst defenses in the league – Atlanta – until the latter stages of ‘garbage time,’ they will not have success against Seattle’s top-ten defense – in both points and yards allowed.
The Seahawks win by seventeen, narrowly cover the huge spread, and capture the NFC West title.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks -15
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
It took a while – far too long, in the eyes of Dolphins fans – but Miami was finally coming together at the right time. A stellar rushing attack, an opportunistic group of players that had won tight games, and a quarterback that had significantly cut down on his turnovers all contributed to a six-game winning streak that vaulted the team into a playoff position. The final piece of the puzzle came in the form of resilience, as the Dolphins suffered their worst loss of the season when Baltimore tore them apart, only to respond with a home victory against the Cardinals, guaranteeing Miami a non-losing season.
Unfortunately for the Dolphins, adversity will, once again, need to be overcome, as the team will be without quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the foreseeable future. Then again, with all due respect for the player at the team’s most important position, how much was Tannehill actually worth to the Dolphins?
Miami’s emergence into the AFC playoff picture began in mid-October on the legs of running back Jay Ajayi. The Dolphins promptly rushed for a combined 914 yards over their six-game winning streak. Not surprisingly, however, Miami’s rush yard totals decreased in every game since Week 7 until it finally lost – in blowout fashion – to the Ravens. Rebounding nicely, 83 yards on the ground helped the Dolphins move back into the win column.
The focus of Saturday night’s divisional battle will clearly be the play of backup-turned-starting-quarterback Matt Moore, but Moore – a veteran passer with a 13-12 career record and 33-to-28 touchdown-to-interception ratio – simply needs to avoid disaster long enough for running back Jay Ajayi to, again, take over a game. Most importantly, we no longer need to fear the Jets’ run defense – which was, at one time, the team’s only discernible strength – as New York has now allowed a whopping 740 yards on the ground over the last five games.
Miami may be missing its quarterback, but it has the matchup and drive to knock off the reeling Jets and their rookie quarterback – returning from a cross-country trip.
The Dolphins win by a touchdown and cover.
Confidence Pick: Miami Dolphins -2.5*
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
It’s happening. The season is now in its final stages and the Cleveland Browns have not yet won a game. It is too late.