This is just impossible.
There are bad weeks. There are bad months. But it is maddening to see that an entire season just refuses to play by the rules. This is nothing new, as we have basically written this same introduction a number of times over the past few months, but it is bordering on impossible.
The one saving grace for how poorly everything went in Week 11 – yes, there are silver linings to be found everywhere – is that we expected the trends to stall before potentially returning. It happened, as basically every ‘easy team’ – and teams that have been winners for nearly everyone – cruised to victories for another week. Again, this was not an outright surprise, but how badly it developed is a complete disappointment. Then again, a record amount of missed extra points, two ‘sure wins’ against the spread turning into pushes, a late field goal to cause a half-point loss, and an inexplicable touchdown pass from a wide receiver to a quarterback were all indications that Week 11 was completely doomed.
What’s most amazing is that the majority of storylines entering last week were driven completely by the outcomes of Week 10’s contests, which included an increase in ratings. Basically, most people that had not been following the state of the league for an entire season jumped back in for Week 10, drew conclusions from sixty minutes of action, and applied them to Week 11. Impossibly, these people won.
While we have belabored this point for nearly three-quarters of a season, this cannot continue. If it does – if the ‘easy teams’ keep winning and covering spreads, regardless of numbers or potential ‘traps’ – then we will keep sinking. But, despite the odds, we still have time to make some noise. Because there is a real possibility that a season-long ‘trap’ continues to be rolled out. If so, it won’t be long before it’s sprung.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 35-37-2 (Last Week: 1-4-1)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 70-85-6 (Last Week: 2-10-2)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Week 12 begins with a three-game day of football on Thanksgiving, kicking off with a divisional showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. As fate would have it, the two teams enter Thursday tied atop the NFC North, albeit heading in completely opposite directions.
After starting the year 5-0, the Vikings have since turned in four consecutive losses before winning in Week 11. Conversely, the Lions flipped the script on a 1-3 start to the year by winning five of their next six games. In a remarkable statistic – and display of resilience – the Lions have actually trailed in the fourth quarter of all ten games, this season. A 6-4 record under those circumstances is impressive.
It is also dangerous. The Lions clearly have trouble handling teams early in games, and it has been through clutch play and timing by an otherwise average squad that Detroit is in position to battle for the division lead. After all, the Lions rank 16th or worse in yards and points both offensively and defensively. To its credit, however, Detroit’s defense has allowed 20 points or fewer in four consecutive games.
Not surprisingly, Minnesota’s defense has returned to earth after an incredible start. The Vikings began the year by allowing an average of 12.6 points-per-game through five weeks, only to allow at least 20 points in each of the next five for an average of 22.6 points-per-game in that span. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings’ offense has also regressed heavily – and predictably – from scoring an average of 23.8 points-per-game to only 17.2 points-per-game. The statistic is even worse than it appears at first glance, as the Vikings were the beneficiary of two touchdowns outside of their offense in Week 11 – an interception and kickoff return. If we remove the 14 points from the 30-point showing by Minnesota, we find that the Vikings’ offense has scored a total of 72 points over its last five games.
With the main focus of the Lions’ season centering around their close games and comeback wins, Detroit cannot afford to get locked in a defensive battle with Minnesota. Winning by slim margins is simply unsustainable, and a team that aspires to become the division champion needs to establish itself as a cut above the rest. With that, Detroit’s avenue to a victory will come from a quick start to the game.
In each of the Vikings’ four losses, Minnesota’s opponent scored first – which, with the exception of last week’s game against Arizona, were also the previous four games. Not surprisingly given the nature of trailing late, Detroit is neither good nor bad at the start of each game and tends to hover for much of the first half. The Vikings’ weakness defensively is in preventing scores at the end of drives – ranked 26th in said category via allowing 30.4 percent of drives to end in points – and Detroit’s offense thrives in the same area of play – ranked ninth, while also averaging the sixth-most yards-per-drive. Herein lies Detroit’s best opportunity to break free, early on.
The Lions make a ‘statement’ in the NFC North by fully passing the sinking Vikings. Detroit wins by ten and covers.
Washington Redskins (+7) at Dallas Cowboys
Caught in the middle between drawing too many conclusions and sticking with an initial read that began two weeks ago, we are presented with arguably the best game of Thanksgiving NFL action. When the Cowboys host the Redskins on Thursday afternoon, it will feature two teams with combined 14-1-1 records since Week 3. ‘Hot,’ meet ‘hotter.’ It will also present the next chance for one team to slip after consistently over-delivering.
There is an incredible risk to be taken by virtue of buying Washington after a convincing victory on Sunday Night Football, as overreacting too heavily to the win could allow us to fall victim to quickly shifting perceptions. But, if the perceptions were right all along – therefore, never changed – then Washington has always been good enough to play within seven points of a division rival on national television – really, on a national holiday.
Targeting the Cowboys as the team to finally lose against the spread is nothing new. Dallas is an absurd 9-0 against the spread since Opening Day, and has been in position to stumble multiple times over the past month. We continue to point out the same key factors and the Cowboys continue to ignore them and move on. For back-to-back weeks, the spreads are now large enough that any close game would push Dallas slightly towards the mean. With six-out-of-their-last-eight games being decided by at least seven points, there have barely been opponents that tested the Cowboys, let alone beat them.
Washington enters Thursday’s matinee as one of the teams most likely to hit Dallas with a competitive game. Since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye, Philadelphia took the Cowboys to overtime, but only via a late-game collapse. Pittsburgh played a wild back-and-forth game with the Cowboys that, if the spread had been set at a realistic number and not a ‘trap,’ Dallas would have been further at risk to finally miss covering – or beating, since it was the underdog – the spread. Washington actually appears to be the best combination of both teams, as its offense is ranked second-best in the league in yards – ninth in points – and has the division familiarity – and close loss from Week 2 – to keep pace with however Dallas performs offensively.
With the Cowboys’ defense ranked near the middle-of-the-pack in yards allowed – a number that is actually inflated by playing the Browns and Ravens – the Redskins have a clear avenue for success on Thursday. They just don’t have the path to complete the outright win, as Washington’s run defense is too much of a liability to be expected to stop Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ rushing attack.
Dallas wins another back-and-forth battle via a four-point victory, but Washington beats the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Indianapolis Colts
Don’t be fooled. There is currently a big cause for concern from Pittsburgh. Despite the final score of the Steelers’ last game showing a double-digit win, they needed both a missed extra point and a fumble returned for a touchdown to escape with such a big margin-of-victory. Normally, we would devalue what Pittsburgh did even further by picking against it, but the Colts might actually be the team more in danger of falling apart.
Indianapolis has been one of the wildest teams in the league, all year. Without winning or losing more than two consecutive games at any point throughout the year, the Colts enter Week 12 at 5-5 and still alive in the division race. However, further inspecting each win and loss proves just how sporadic the Colts have been.
Of Indianapolis’ five wins, one came against the lowly Bears, another against the Chargers via a 63-yard catch-and-run on a broken play, two wins against the Titans – a division rival, one of which came after a bye week – and one more against the sinking Packers in a game that started with a kickoff returned for a touchdown by Indianapolis. Completely unpredictable.
Conversely, the Steelers went from a 4-1 powerhouse to a 5-5 mediocre squad – still tied for the division lead, however – via a relatively reasonable path. One ‘letdown’ game in Miami – against a Dolphins team that is now 6-4 – included an injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger that caused him to miss the team’s next game against New England – a loss – and still appear hampered in Baltimore – also a loss – before returning home to play the hottest team in football from Dallas. A 35-30 shootout loss later that included the Steelers leading with 42 seconds remaining in the game, Pittsburgh was ready to go to Cleveland and recover – which it did.
The Steelers are predictable. Their high-powered offense clearly took a hit with the injury to Roethlisberger, and the one win and 30-point outing in a loss can be attributed to his improving health. In the dome of Indianapolis and against the Colts’ awful defense – allowing the fourth-most total yards and most passing yards in the league – Pittsburgh will continue its rebound.
This was the projection before it became clear that Indianapolis will be without quarterback Andrew Luck. As soon as the spread tripled, it was clear that the Colts were about to face a nearly impossible task.
We love to read the stories that spreads tell and, as much as a large road spread screams for us to go in the opposite direction and take the points, this was not the initial intention. The Colts were not supposed to get blown out and the number was never meant to suggest such a case. If anything, the small number of points Indianapolis was getting bordered on a potential ‘trap.’ It worked, too, as the Steelers were undoubtedly the team to pick when they were only giving a few points.
Protection was needed as soon as rumors grew stronger that Luck would miss the game. Those who make the spread had already allowed people to buy in for only a few points. But, as soon as it looked like there was an opportunity to get burned, what could be done to prevent it?
Easy. Make the spread so large that it should scare away people from continuing piling on. Want to pick the Steelers? Pay a premium.
We will, as the premium is only in place as a reactionary method to avoid over-exposure to Pittsburgh.
The Steelers win by two touchdowns and cover the suddenly large spread.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
For an Arizona franchise that was basically unbeatable against the spread in 2015, the Cardinals have disintegrated in the encore. They looked poised to recover with a road game against the Vikings – also sinking – only to allow fourteen points via an interception and kickoff returned for a touchdown.