NFL Picks: 2016 Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

There it is.

In one fell swoop, the rug was pulled from under the feet of the entire football-watching world. Only, unlike previous weeks, there were more feet standing on the rug. More feet to be tripped. Coincidence? Of course not.

For the entire season, we have preached about the false positives that the 2016 NFL season continues to provide. For the past few weeks, we began to see the light at the end of the tunnel. We emerged in Week 10.

We continue to stress how different this season has been compared to the last few. It is true for a number of reasons that range from as obvious as a presidential election to as subtle as referee crew changes and tweaks to field goal block units. There are too many causes to list, but the effect is real.

That is, until this past week.

The two running themes of this season that have remained constant are the decline in viewership and the increase in what we classify as ‘easy teams’ covering the spread. But, as we stated in last week’s introduction, what happens when viewership returns? With a fantastic slate of potentially excellent games ahead of us, eyeballs – no longer distracted by an election or historic World Series – will undoubtedly find their way back to a screen. Then what?

They lose. Of course they lose. Because this game of picking against the spread is not as cut-and-dry as the first few months of this year have suggested. Instead, look back over the course of the past two full seasons and recognize that we are living in an outlier. One that just changed and began to revert toward the mean.

In Week 9 – the final set of games before the election and when attention was likely diverted – the Falcons, Cowboys, Saints, and Chargers all defied the odds by winning and covering their spreads. In what should be the least surprising news of the month to our readers, three-out-of-four all lost and failed to cover the spread in Week 10. In addition, the Patriots were back in action after a bye week. Easy money, right? Make that four-of-five teams failed to win and cover.

Now that the wave is finally cresting, we need to see where it takes us. We started off last week’s column by stating that we were in a ‘make-or-break’ position, but the follow-up is just as important as the initial jolt. As scheduling would have it, we may not get our answer, just yet.

With a combination of both poor matchups – it is nearly impossible to top last week’s incredible drama highlighted by the Cowboys and Steelers, followed by the Seahawks and Patriots – and normal regression – favorites performed so poorly in Week 10 that a ‘correction’ is in the works – we will almost certainly need to wait another week for the next big move. In the meantime, the same metaphorical rug will be carefully reset, luring more people back to its soft embrace. We can join the party, too, as long as we remain at the edge, ready to be the first to jump off, not trip, when it begins to move.

Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.

*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 34-33-1 (Last Week: 6-1)

(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)

All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 68-75-4 (Last Week: 7-7)

(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

We love to target a team that is returning to action after a heart-breaking loss, but what happens when both teams suffered equally gut-wrenching defeats in the prior week? Such is the case for the Saints and Panthers, both of whom had win probabilities of 95 percent or higher at one point in the fourth quarter of their Week 10 games – according to Pro Football Reference.

Removing each team’s recent loss from the equation still leaves us with two teams under-performing to the tune of sub-.500 records. Both have made recent pushes to get back into the conversation of division champion, but last week’s losses threw a major wrench in the plans. Surprisingly, the uptick in performance for the Saints and Panthers have helped level off some of their extreme rankings. But one team has gained more than the other.