Overview
500 lap race, last 2 races one guy led over 400 in each, however I don’t expect that today. I expect 2 or 3 guys leading over 100 laps. Thus I will be rotating dominators and trying to get as many of those points as possible. There is also potential for rain tonight and they wont run it tomorrow if it gets rained out. Nascar will try and do whatever they can to get it in today.
Dominators:
1.Kyle Busch $10700 (Starting 7th): Kyle has been very good here the last 5 races and I expect him to continue that. He ran in the top 5 virtually the whole race on Sunday, leading me to believe JGR is starting to figure things out. (ALL)
2.Martin Truex Jr. $10300 (Starting 5th): Like Kyle, Truex has been figuring it out lately, finishing in the top 5 on Sunday and Truex led over 400 laps last year at Martinsville. I like pairing Kyle and Truex together because it’s fairly easy to do so. (ALL)
3.Brad Keselowski $9500 (Starting 6th): He’s led laps in 4 of the last 5 races at Martinsville, led over 400 laps two years ago and has finished in the top 10 in all 5 races. (ALL)
4.Denny Hamlin $11900 (Starting 12th): 3 top 10s in the last 5 Martinsville races, and led laps in 4/5 races, as well as over 40 fastest laps in 3/5. I don’t mind him for GPP’s. He’s going to get ownership along with the guys mentioned above him but for good reason. He’s a GPPplay for me (GPP)
5.Kevin Harvick $112000 (Starting 10th) Lower owned and has the first pit stall which is more imporant with no practice. Likely to get a top 10 finish.
6.Jimmie Johnson $12500 (Starting 21st): This price tag is huge but I love it. He’s got 9 wins at Martinsville, has looked great this season and this will probably be his last race here. The best PD potential of the high priced guys, theres no reason in my opinion while Jimmie couldn’t get one last win here. Love him for GPP’s and you can pair him with one of these other guys fairly easily. (GPP)
7.Clint Bowyer $8600 (Starting 4th): Love Bowyer for GPP’s. I would rather play him than Blaney personally but I wouldn’t go overboard with him. He’s someone I think can lead 100 laps and then not win, in typical Bowyer fashion. (GPP)
8.Ryan Blaney $8400 (Starting 1st): Blaney on the pole at a short track is cool. He led 146 laps four races ago at Martinsville, but the pole sitters haven’t faired well lately here. Throw in a comp caution at some point in the early going, possibly even two, and I don’t see him holding the lead for long enough for it to get him into the optimal GPP lineup. For cash he’s fine I think, but I will probably go elsewhere in cash and GPP’s. (Cash)
Place Differential:
1.Christopher Bell $8200 (Starting 32nd): Play him. Great short track racer, been good this season. Will be chalk but who cares. Eat in in cash, and if you’re playing one line, eat in in GPP’s too. (ALL)
2.Chris Buescher $5600 (Starting 24th): Last 5 races at Martinsville he’s got no finish lower than 23rd. He started off the season strong but since we’ve come back from the break. He’s struggled. With his price point I’ll be playing him in cash though. (ALL)
3.Ryan Preece $5700 (Starting 28th): In his only 2 races in the last 5 seasons at Martinsville, he’s finished 19th and 16th. Love him here again. Really excelled in the Whelan modifies and that is a short track league. (ALL)
4.Ty Dillon $6200 (Starting 30th): Two top 15’s in the last 5 races at Martinsville, and no finishes below 30th in those 5 races. I think he’s safe for cash however I’ll be going with Buescher for cash. (ALL)
5.Cole Custer $5900 (Starting 27th): He’s not incredibly good at short tracks, but starting 27th in a SHR car needs mentioning. Top 20 is all you need. (GPP)
6.Michael Mcdowell $5100 (Starting 29th): No finishes lower than 29th here in 5 seasons. Looked good at Bristol (different style of short track but still a short track). Don’t mind him for Gpp’s if you’re trying to fit multiple expensive guys. (GPP)
7.Daniel Suarez $7100 (Starting 37th): If he was lower priced, I’d probably have some of him. Obviously in a crappy car, but he can squeeze out a top 25 here. I wont be playing him, but I certainly understand playing some in GPP. (GPP)
Other plays:
1.Tyler Reddick $7400 (Starting 14th): I assume he will be low owned because of where he’s starting. I certainly will take a stab at him for GPP’s. (GPP)
2.Erik Jones $6500 (Starting 13th): He’ll be low-owned after burning people on Sunday and with a bad history here. (GPP)
Lucas Hall is Sporfolio’s resident NASCAR DFS expert. For more of his work, follow him on Twitter at THEJENNERALSDFS.
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