Overview
500 laps, it’s a short track and it’s FAST.
This slate will be high scoring, as there are 500 laps of dominator points to go around. In saying this, getting as many dominator points into your lineup is the key to this. PD is fine for the cheap guys you play, but PD matters less for the high priced guys if they cant lead laps this week.
Top Tier: Over $10k
1.Kyle Busch $12,500 (Starting 7th): 3 wins in the last 5 races at Bristol, has been horrible this season, and my hope is that recency bias takes ownership away from him. He’s had over 30 fastest laps in all of the last 5 races and also led over 30 laps in 4 of the last 5. I continue to say this feels like the turning point, and with his dominance at this track, I want him. I will always be early on Kyle Busch, but you certainly don’t want to be late on him.
http://2.Chase Elliott $11,300 (Starting 6th): Obviously the world of Nascar knows the streak he’s on, should have won the last 2 cup races before Thursday, won the truck race and then won the cup race on Thursday. People are going to play him because of how good he’s been this season, and understandably, I am as well. He’s got a decent history here and I look for him to improve on it and get a top 5 here.
Mid-High Tier: $8500-$10k
1.Ryan Blaney $8600 (Starting 4th): Dude has been rock solid this season apart from Darlington, where he has always sucked. Him and Kyle are my two picks to win this race, and for good reason. 3 out of the last 5 races Blaney has led over 100 laps here and he has 4 top 10s. I look for him to get that win on this short track, with the form he’s in its definitely doable. He should have atleast one win this season already but problems prevented it. Give me all the blaney this week.
2.Clint Bowyer $9800 (Starting 23rd): Can Bowyer put an entire race together? In his last 4 races here he’s finished 7th, 7th, 6th, and 8th and led over 100 laps in one of the races. I look for him to continue to show speed, finish in the top 10 and give us some dominator points as well. Definitely a gpp play as he is 9800, but I think he definitely comes in low owned.
3.Martin Truex Jr. $9400 (Starting 5th): Martin looked awful at charlotte in the second race there but that race was shorter. Truex is notorious for his long run speed, and a race with 500 laps suits that. Although Truex struggled to get a win on a short track, taking him something like 78 races to do it, it wasn’t that he struggled per say, it was that he struggled to put a whole race together.
I am not listing Keselowski as a play because of the competition caution tires mean something at Bristol so he’s going to have to pit with everyone else and I think he gets passed on pit road early. He’s a fine play IF he can regain the lead after those pit stops, but I’m not so sure he does.
Mid-Low Tier: $7000-$8500
1.Erik Jones $7000 (Starting 15th): This price doesn’t make sense to me at all. He shown speed all season and he went down in price even farther for this Sunday’s race. He’s had over 20 fastest laps in 4 of the last 5 races at Bristol, led laps in 3 of the races (260 in one of them) and I look for him to finish T-10 here. At 7k you cant ask for much more than that.
2.Kurt Busch $8300 (Starting 12th): Kurt Busch has 3 top 5s in his last 5 races at Bristol. This trend continues and I think he finished in the top 10. The hope is that he’ll get some fastest laps and lead some laps as well.
3.Christopher Bell $7300 (Starting 35th): I expect Bell to be chalk because of where he’s starting. He’s only 7300 and you have the potential for him to finish T-15 and absolutely smash. I’m playing him in cash, as will many people I would expect. Between him and Bubba, I prefer Bell as he’s shown more speed all season. He’s really coming into his own and here’s another place for him to show just how good he is.
4.Bubba Wallace $7500 (Starting 36th): This can’t go wrong 3 times in a row can it? He’s starting close to the rear, has 3 top 20s in 4 races here and he’s higher priced than he normally is. I don’t know whether I’ll play him in cash when I can just play Jones and Bell for cheaper, but if he fits I will. Not going to lead laps or get fastest laps so you’re relying on PD.
Low Tier: Under 7k
1.Ryan Preece $6000 (Starting 33rd): Cash play, has won a race at Bristol in Xfinity. He’s been very good this season and I’d expect that to continue. Not much else other than a PD play and he’s too cheap.
2.Daniel Suarez $6500 (Starting 37th): When they do a qualifying draw he’s always going to start 37th and back because his team isn’t a charter team. He has two 8th place finishes here in an SHR car, and he’s actually done okay in the Gaunt brothers car since Nascar returned. I don’t know whether I’ll be playing him in cash or not, but certainly in gpp I will.
3.Ryan Newman $6800 (Starting 17th): Has a few top 10s here in the last 5 races, has looked more and more comfortable in his car as the weeks have gone on. He’s cheap and he’s got top 10 potential, and that’s good enough for me. Highly doubt he leads laps or has fastest laps, but solid PD guy for less than 7k.
Lucas Hall is Sporfolio’s resident NASCAR DFS expert. For more of his work, follow him on Twitter at THEJENNERALSDFS.
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