Overview
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Breakdown
The pricing for this race makes things interesting for once. Do you go with the PD potential of Jimmie Johnson, Bowyer or Hamlin, or do you go with the dominator potential of Elliott, Truex and Harvick, who all have a nice discount today. This race is 208 laps rather than the 400 they ran on Sunday, so there are basically half as many dominator points to go around. With that being said, you can look at one main dominator or 2 semi dominators. I will be putting more of an emphasis on place differential than dominators in my lineup, and think this is the way to go tonight.
Top Tier Over 10k
1.Jimmie Johnson $12,300 (Starting 40th): He starting last and is also the highest price guy in the field. Draftkings switched up the pricing and I’m here for it. If its possible I want Jimmie in cash here. Many people are going to go the balanced build with a few 9k guys and the chalk 7k range. With this race being half as long, theres less of those extra points to go around, making place differential weigh a little more than Sunday. His history here is outstanding too, with only one finish outside the top 10 in his last 5 races.
2.Denny Hamlin $11,200 (Starting 29th): Now I know his 3 most important crew members are suspended for 4 races, but I think Denny has the speed and quality to be a good play in gpp. I wanted to make him a cash play but the crew members he’s lost scared me out of playing him in cash, as well as some of the 9k guys being underpriced. He finished 7 laps down last race after having an issue before the green flag, and still had 29 fastest laps. I can easily see him finishing top 10 with 20+ fastest laps. He would be number 1 if Jimmie wasn’t starting last.
3.Kyle Busch $10,500 (Starting 15th): Playing busch with any of the main PD guys is tough because of his price tag. Looking at his history here he looks really good, but I understand why there isn’t much talk about him for this race. He’s been quite bad lately, not accruing many dominator points and getting quite lucky to finish where he has. This for me is a good spot to get on him then, if you’re going to get a low owned Kyle Busch, I’m going to play that everytime. I’d rather be too early than too late on his explosion at a race soon.
Mid-High Tier 8500-10k
1.Martin Truex Jr. $9400 (Starting 15th): Quite frankly this whole range is underpriced, the 9k range would normally be the 10k range and it makes for some interesting decisions. Looking at Truex, he’s been dominant for the last 5 years and he’s going to be chalk for that reason. Giving him up to 14 extra points from PD, combined with his dominator potential, if youre not play Jimmie in cash, this is where I would start. Look for a top 5 finish, 20+ fastest laps and 30+ led laps here.
http://2.Chase Elliott $9700 (Starting 19th): Another guy who will be chalky as we just saw what he could do in the trucks as well as the race on Sunday. If you’re not going Jimmie again, he’s got to be in your cash line. In gpp’s, ill be spreading it out between truex and Elliott while combining the 2 as well, but differentiating elsewhere to make the lineup a bit more unique.
3.Alex Bowman $8700 (starting 2nd): My favorite and most of the industries favorite early dominator, it will be between him and his teammate William Byron and like most of the industry I think its bowman who gets out front early. Now im not saying completely fade Byron, because obviously theres a chance he gets out front early starting from the pole. Bowman has had speed all season, and I willing to play him in cash whether its with Elliott and truex or with Jimmie.
Mid-Low Tier 7000-8500
Before I get into the plays, this range is loaded. The only ones I don’t like are Austin Dillon, Reddick, and Almirola. I will however list the 4 I like the most.
1.Ryan Blaney $7900 (Starting 18th): Chalk. He’s looked very good this season aside from Darlington and he showed that Sunday when he finished 4th. Again he has some nice PD and he can give you around 10 fastest laps too. He’s too cheap and is almost a must play.
2.Ryan Newman $7500 (Starting 27th): Everyone is on Newman and rightly so. He’s got the PD potential and he’s only 7500 so you can fit him in either stars and scrubs or a balanced build. Looking for a 15th place finish or higher here and that’s easily attainable for newman.
3.Matt Kenseth $8100 (Starting 26th): He smacked the wall Sunday and that hurt him. He’s looked good since he came back and I see a top 15 finish for him if everything goes well. I prefer the other two above him in this range in cash. But he’s a good gpp play.
4.Bubba Wallace $8300 (Starting 38th): Can bubba finish top 20? If he can he looks like a good play, but obviously its bubba and up until this season, that wasn’t really a thought for him. He crashed on Sunday but I like him to bounce back and finish top 20. Top 25 wont do it with these guys around him which is why he’s 4th on my list in this range.
Value Tier Under 7000
1.Ty Dillon $6300 (Starting 25th): He’s one of about 3 total playable guys below $7000. I prefer ty for cash over the other two if possible, but obviously some decisions have to be made. He’s not going to light the scoreboard on fire, but 20th is possible for him.
2.Ryan Preece $6000 (Starting 22nd): Finished 23rd on Sunday, looked good for most of the race. Like him as a pivot off ty. Should finish top 25.
3.Joey Gase $5200 (Starting 36th): The only guy under 6k I like. He ran over the weight Denny dropped Sunday and started 2 laps down. I see him finishing around 30th, assuming that those things don’t happen again.
Lucas Hall is Sporfolio’s resident NASCAR DFS expert. For more of his work, follow him on Twitter at THEJENNERALSDFS.
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