Overview
Charlotte Motor Speedway
600 miles. 400 laps.
Generally speaking, we are looking for one main dominator (100+ laps led) and one to two guys who can lead 50+ laps.
An update will be posted prior to the race and following Qualifying.
Update
General Note: This is a perfect race for GPP, as there are a bunch of chalk plays to pivot off.
Generally speaking, we are looking for one main dominator (100+ laps led) and one to two guys who can lead 50+ laps.
The guys who have been able to lead 100 laps in a race in the last 5 at Charlotte are:
Martin Truex Jr. (Twice, 2017(1) and 2019)
Kyle Busch (377 out of 400 in 2018)
Kevin Harvick (2017)
Chase Elliott (2016)
Jimmie Johnson (2016)
The guys who have led over 50 laps (but less than 100) in a race in the last 5 at Charlotte are:
Kyle Busch (Twice, 79 in 2019 and 63 in 2017(1))
Martin Truex Jr. (91 in 2017(2))
Brad Keselowski (76 in 2019)
Denny Hamlin (52 in 2016)
Because this is so close to lock and I don’t have much time to re-write the article, I am going to simply list a few plays I like for cash and a few I like for gpp.
Dominators:
1.Truex $10,600 (ALL)
2.Kyle Busch $11,500 (GPP)
3.Elliott $9400 (GPP)
4.Ku Busch $8700 (GPP)
5.Johnson $9200 (GPP)
Play one of Kurt Busch/Johnson/Elliott because they’re starting in the top 3 positions
Place Differential Plays:
Kevin Harvick $11,200 (Cash)
Aric Almirola $7500 (All)
Ryan Blaney $8100 (All)
Matt Dibenedetto $7200 (Cash + Small field gpp)
Daniel Suarez $6100 (Cash)
Ryan Preece $6000 (GPP pivot)
Cole Custer $6400 (All)
Joey Gase $4800 (All) this is simply a punt, looking for a 29th-31st place finish.
Michael McDowell $5600 (All)
Low Owned GPP Plays:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr $7400 (Starting 17th)
Bubba Wallace $5900 (Starting 23rd)
Fades:
Tyler Reddick
Austin Dillon
Joey Logano
Matt Kenseth
Ty Dillon
History
The guys who have been able to lead 100 laps in a race in the last 5 at Charlotte are:
Martin Truex Jr. (Twice, 2017(1) and 2019)
Kyle Busch (377 out of 400 in 2018)
Kevin Harvick (2017)
Chase Elliott (2016)
Jimmie Johnson (2016)
The guys who have led over 50 laps (but less than 100) in a race in the last 5 at Charlotte are:
Kyle Busch (Twice, 79 in 2019 and 63 in 2017(1))
Martin Truex Jr. (91 in 2017(2))
Brad Keselowski (76 in 2019)
Denny Hamlin (52 in 2016)
Breakdown
As we can see from this, there are two names that come up on both lists, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch. These are my two main targets for dominators before qualifying has started. At $11,500, Kyle Busch is the most expensive play on the slate and Truex Jr. is $10,600. Kyle Busch has led 542 laps total in the last 5 races and also had 309 fastest laps in that same span. Truex Jr. has led 440 laps and had 246 fastest laps. Choosing one of these guys may be more beneficial when constructing a lineup, but depending on how qualifying goes, both of these guys could end up in my cash line.
From a place differential perspective, a few names jump out to me. The first is Jimmie Johnson. He’s had an average starting position of 17.6 but an average finishing position of 7.6 during the last 5 races. This especially stand out to me because for the last 2 years (aside from the start of this season) Jimmie has been horrible. Even while struggling he managed to have an 8th and a 5th here in the last 2 years. At $9200, he may not fit into a cash lineup depending on qualifying, but he for sure intrigues me if his qualifying puts him in the mid to late teens or farther back. The second guy that caught my eye was Bubba Wallace. Normally I am team no thankyou on bubba but this season he has looked especially good compared to what he normally does and I think that helps him continue the success he has had here at charlotte. He has a 16th and a 25th place finish here but he’s had positive place differential in both of these races at charlotte as well as this season he’s had an average finishing position of 17.3. If Bubba qualifies in the mid to late 20s, I definitely think with his price of $5900 he’ll be in play.
Two other plays I want to touch on are Alex Bowman and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Alex Bowman has been incredible so far this season with a new found confidence. In his last 2 starts at Charlotte, Bowman has a 7th and a 9th. In those respective races he started 13th, and 29th. I think he brings his new found speed and confidence into charlotte and has a potential to be a nice PD play with some fastest laps and maybe some led laps as well. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is someone who really gives it his all 24/7. He wrecked lap 1 of the return race at Darlington on Sunday and didn’t fair too well on Wednesday either. I think that changes here with a track he seems to like and do well at. At $7400 you don’t need a ton from him to meet the 5x you want from him and he’s got a lowest finish of 15th in the last 4 races, including a 5th last year. He’s with a new team and he’s still working out the kinks, but I think this is the track he turns it around on.
Recap – Prior to Qualifying
Kyle Busch $11,500
Martin Truex Jr. $10,600
Alex Bowman $9400
Jimmie Johnson $9200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7400
Bubba Wallace $5900
Lucas Hall is Sporfolio’s resident NASCAR DFS expert. For more of his work, follow him on Twitter at THEJENNERALSDFS.
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