Overview
This is the second Cup race here in 4 days and many people saw how the last race went. All the top guys are starting mid-teens and it makes for some intriguing ways to be slightly different in builds.
I added a few extra drivers because I feel this slate is fairly straight forward for cash but for GPP it makes it much more interesting to fade one or two of the guys who will be 35%+ owned in GPPs.
All prices are from DraftKings
Top Tier: Over 10k
1.Kyle Busch $12,000 (Starting 26th): Kyle Busch looked very good coming through the field on Sunday until he smacked the wall and really hurt the aero of his car. He also complained of a loose wheel late in the race having to pit while running in the top 10, effectively ruining his day. He’s running the xfinity race Tuesday night, assuming it doesn’t get rained out and I think having that extra track time will help him on Wednesday night as well. I would not expect Kyle to have back to back bad finishes.
UPDATE: I still like Kyle as the best top dollar play even thought the xfinity race didn’t run. I still don’t expect him to have back to back bad finishes
2.Alex Bowman $10,300 (Starting 19th): Now I’m not a fan of running him in GPPs on Wednesday because hes going to be higher owned than he was on Sunday. Him or Chase Elliott are the two guys who I can personally fit into my cash line after placing the rest of the plays I list as cash plays into my lineup. Based on what we’ve seen this season and track history from Bowman, I’m inclined to pick him over Chase and completely fade Chase all together. Bowman led 41 laps Sunday and had 48 fastest laps. While I don’t expect him to lead as many laps Sunday, he now has the place differential points he didn’t have.
UPDATE: After seeing ownership projections and his crew chiefs tweet, I’m more inclined to also play bowman in gpp’s
3.Martin Truex Jr. $11,100 (Starting 15th): Truex looked horrible for the first 100 laps of the race and then slowly came alive. He didn’t have short run speed but on a long run he was great. I’d expect his team to be dialed in from the start this race and see him move up to the front much quicker than the race on Sunday.
4.Denny Hamlin $10,700 (Starting 16th): Hamlin looked decent on Sunday finishing 5th while not really having a car that could contend for the lead. This is why I like him on Wednesday night. He had 14 fastest laps Sunday ran 2nd for a while and had an average position of 6th.
FADE: Chase Elliott. I’m not really into him, he didn’t look great Sunday and he didn’t show the potential to lead laps or accumulate a bunch of fastest laps. Pass for me.
Mid-High Tier: 8500-10k
This tier I’m going to have a different setup because there are the obvious guys for cash who I don’t want to spend much time on, and then some GPP plays I like.
CASH
1.William Byron $8900 (Starting 34th): He crashed and it ruined his race, looked really good before that. Obviously high owned due to starting position.
2.Jimmie Johnson $9100 (Starting 37th): Was leading last race when he crashed, obvious cash play. Extremely high owned.
GPP
1.Joey Logano $9400 (Starting 3rd): He has Ryan Preece and Ty Dillon in front of him to start the race. I like him to make quick work of both of them and get out and lead some laps before the other top guys are able to get to the front. He wasn’t great in the race on Sunday, but did also lose a ton of spot when he came to pit and the caution came out right before he got to his pit box. He didn’t have any fastest laps or lead any laps but I think that changes Wednesday night.
2.Kurt Busch $8700 (Starting 18th): With everyone that is quite clearly the chalk in this range, I cant recommend Kurt as a cash play. But for GPPs, he’s a clear pivot off of Jimmie or Byron and he has the potential to accumulate some fastest laps as well as a solid place differential. He had a green flag passing difference of +14 and he had 10 fastest laps.
FADE: Brad Keselowski $9700 (Starting 8th): As the race went on, he really started to fall off when he didn’t have clean air. He led 80 laps but a majority of that came from the start of the race and when harvick had trouble on pit road. He hasn’t quite been in sync with his new crew chief this season and I’m more than willing to list Brad as a fade again Wednesday Night.
Mid-Low Tier: $7000-$8500
Again in this tier there are two cash plays that I’m just going to list and then some GPP plays I like as pivots.
CASH
1.Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $7900 (Starting 39th): Crashed sunday on the first lap. Cash Play, Obvious. High owned.
2.Chris Buescher $8100 (Starting 32nd): Cash play, obvious play. May be the one who people fade, i wont be.
GPP
1.Erik Jones $8500 (Starting 13th): Again, obviously he’s going to get less ownership than Sunday because of the obvious plays. This makes him the perfect GPP driver. He looked okay on Sunday and had climbed to 5th before complaining that he may have a loose wheel and backed off to not crash. He only had 1 fastest lap but he could easily finish top 5 if things go his way.
2.Tyler Reddick $7700 (Starting 14th): Man, on Sunday he did not disappoint. This track suits his driving style perfectly and it showed. He had to come from 29th twice and did it with ease. Obviously starting 14th cuts away at his potential points from place differential and gives him a greater risk to fail. He had 9 fastest laps which was a nice bonus and he looked like he could have gotten a top 5 had he not gotten the tire violation around mid race.
3.Matt Kenseth $7600 (Starting 11th): On Sunday I said to fade because it was his first race in 2 years. That’s not the case now. He looked really good as the race went on and I think that trend continues Wednesday night. He’s cheap and he’s experienced. I was very surprised by him but I definitely think another top 10 is possible here.
FADE: Aric Almirola $7400 (Starting 9th): He looked okay on Sunday but didn’t really impress me. Starting 9th he probably wont be high owned anyways but I wouldn’t bother running him in any lineups. He’s not going to win you a GPP from that starting position.
Value tier Under: $7000
I really don’t like this tier much at all so this will be more brief.
1.Corey Lajoie $5500 (Starting 31st): This is likely the chalk cash play that helps fit everything else that’s obvious. In saying that, I like him for both cash and GPP. His team has had struggles this season with things failing in the car, but again there’s really no one else for cash down in this range that is viable. His team also has an alliance with SHR so hopefully things will turn around for them.
2.Cole Custer $6600 (Starting 22nd): He looked good for this first 50 or so laps and then kind of just fell off. He’s young and in an SHR car and I think they will take some notes from Harvick’s cars and change some things in his. He didn’t lead any laps, and didn’t have any fastest laps but at one point he was up to 4th position. His avg running position was 20th and I think after getting some help from his SHR teammates, that will become more like 16th or 17th.
FADE: Ryan Preece and Ty Dillon. They starting on the front row and I don’t see any way they stay up there. They will fall back rather quickly and I’d be surprised if either of them lead more than 5 laps.
Lucas Hall is Sporfolio’s resident NASCAR DFS expert. For more of his work, follow him on Twitter at THEJENNERALSDFS.
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