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NASCAR DFS 5/17/20: The Real Heroes 400 by Lucas Hall
MAJOR DISCLAIMER: There is no practice and no actual qualifying so this race is going to be crazy. What I have provided is a basic history of the last 6 races and guys I feel show the potential to help win a GPP, along with guys I feel are safe cash plays. All prices are from DraftKings.
Kyle Larson was an animal here and led 500 laps in the last 6 years (second only to Harvick) and he also had 212 fastest laps as well. With this stat domination eliminated by his stupidity, this will give other guys a chance to grab some of these stats in this race.
Top Tier: Over 10k
1.Kevin Harvick $11,500 (Starting 6th): Best average finisher here in the last 6 years (4.2 avg finish) Led 518 laps and hasn’t finished outside the top ten in the last 6 races.
2.Martin Truex Jr. $10,800 (Starting 15th): He has been GOD AWFUL this year. I think this race changes his year around. 89 fastest laps and 106 laps led in the past 3 races make him an intriguing GPP play at probably low ownership UPDATE: He may not have low ownership after getting a qualifying position of 15th yesterday. He’s the lowest 10k+ starter in the field and that will garner ownership in itself.
3.Kyle Busch $11,800 (Starting 4th): 3rd best avg finisher here (6.0 avg finish) 5 top 10s in 6 years including last year when he started 33rd.
FADE: Brad Keselowski $10400 (Starting 1st): He’s starting on the pole and with no practice or any time in the car, I’m more than willing to fade him to win a GPP. He has a decent history, but going with the guy who’s leading the field into turn one after 2 months off and no practice, I’ll pass.
Mid tier: 7500-10k
1.Erik Jones $9200 (Starting 20th): He’s only ran 3 races here, but he’s been outstanding in all 3 races. He has a 96.4% top 15 running position in his 1101 laps, and he has not finished outside the top 10 yet (1st last year, 8th and then 5th) He also had 66 fastest laps and 79 led laps in 3 races. UPDATE: play him.
2.Kurt Busch $8500 (Starting 22nd): Last 6 years he has 4 top 10s and 2 finishes outside the top 30. I’m willing to bank on him doing well here. In the last 3 races combined he’s had 92 fastest laps and led 101 laps. UPDATE: Yes please. Starting 22nd is just adding more place differential for Kurt.
3.Clint Bowyer $8100 (Starting 13th): In the last 3 years he’s started since he moved to SHR he’s started between 13th and 17th all 3 races, and in 2 of those races he finished 36th or worse. The only race he finished he finished 6th. Obviously a GPP play here but with where his draw is (13th to 24th) I think he has elite upside if you’re willing to take the risk on him. UPDATE: even though he’s starting 13th, still really like him as a GPP play. Should lower his ownership.
FADE: Matt Kenseth $7900 (Starting 12th): His first race in a few years and he’s starting just outside the top 10 with no practice, no thank you.
Value tier Under: 7500 UPDATED RANKINGS
1.Tyler Reddick $7200(Starting 29th): He’s gonna be starting between 24th and 36th and if it’s anywhere lower than 24th its too low. He’s been unlucky so far in his rookie season but that changes here I believe. Has a 2nd and a 3rd place finish here in Xfinity. UPDATE: He’ll be chalky but for good reason, obvious cash play, personally would play him in GPP too and differentiate elsewhere.
2.Ty Dillon $5600(Starting 33rd): The more skilled of the two Dillon brothers, has worse equipment than Austin but ty consistently outperforms this equipment. In his 3 races at Darlington he has positive place differential and even had a 13th 3 years ago. UPDATE: Play him. All formats. He may also be chalky like Reddick but I think differentiating at the top this week may be the way to go.
3.Chris Buescher $7000 (Starting 24th): He’s been very good this season since moving to his new team in the offseason. Hasn’t finished below 17th this season and has a good history at Darlington as well. (Hasn’t finished below 17th in his 4 career cup races here) He’s not going to get you the fastest laps or led laps, but he should have a good place differential on Sunday.
The obvious play everyone will play because of accident:
4.Ryan Newman $6500 (Starting 21st): The narrative is there and people are going to play him solely based off that and his severely underpriced price. He’s been decent at Darlington and is by far the best driver down in this range. Obviously going to be chalky, it’s his first race since the Daytona accident and people are going to tune in simply to see his comeback.
FADE: Austin Dillon $7400(Starting 16th): I hate recommending Austin Dillon because quite frankly I think he sucks… BUT he is one of 3 racers to finish on the lead lap in all of their last 6 races here (Kyle Busch, and Erik Jones(3 races)) and he even had a whopping 7 fastest laps in the last 3 races. He’s definitely more of a floor play as he doesn’t really have a ceiling. UPDATE: Personally don’t see him winning you a GPP now starting 16th. FADE
Lucas Hall is Sporfolio’s resident NASCAR DFS expert. For more of his work, follow him on Twitter at THEJENNERALSDFS.
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