MLB 2022 Full Season Predictions

Baseball is a constant.

It’s not a constant in how each season unfolds. Nor how teams operate. In fact, it’s not even a constant in what the league enforces from year-to-year.

Baseball is a constant in that it is a presence. It’s always there. For some, it’s background noise, but it’s there. For others, it’s a grind, but it’s there.

Baseball is always there.

Until it isn’t.

Twice in the past three years, we have missed a scheduled Opening Day. Twice in the last three years, we had some version of an offseason or preseason compromised. Twice in the past three years, we couldn’t rely on the constant.

For those of us who care about this game on a deeper level than uniforms and numbers, the return of baseball is a return of our constant. It’s what we expected and, even if the form it takes is now more variable than it has been, it is, once again, there.

Maybe there is a positive takeaway, though — after all, we always look for opportunities to find value. Perhaps, while the chaos of a condensed offseason settles, we are able to look at those who quietly made moves — or, by comparison, had no reason to suddenly turn aggressive. We probably haven’t seen a year like this in quite some time but, then again, we definitely hadn’t seen a year like 2020 until it arrived.

Once again, we are here. So is baseball. And so is our plan of attack for the upcoming season.

Below are my predictions for the 2022 Major League Baseball Season. The green highlight indicates a season-long over/under win total pick. I wrote about any team that either had an over-under win total pick, is projected to make the playoffs, or is particularly interesting. All over-under win totals are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Once again, please do your own research and due diligence before acting on anything written in this article. Click here for Mario’s 2022 fantasy baseball rankings.

American League Projected Standings

New York Yankees – No Win Total Pick – Wild Card Berth

The New York Yankees enter 2022 with basically the same approach as they have for the past decade or so. They want to slug their way to victory for the regular season and carve an easy path to the playoffs. Why wouldn’t that happen? The glaring hole is the starting rotation, but there’s enough firepower to cover said hole for the marathon that is the regular season. They also have a habit of churning out solid bullpen arms, so it’s not like the team is devoid of pitching talent — and, of course, there’s Gerrit Cole.

Toronto Blue Jays – No Win Total Pick – AL East Winner

I already feel as if I am leaning on projected chalk a little too much, but the Toronto Blue Jays will not be denied this year. They fell one game short of making the playoffs last season with an outstanding 91-71 record, and they have only made moves to strengthen the team. Indeed, the American League East remains stacked, but Toronto is one of the reasons why. The combination of youth developing into stars and the solidifying of potential weak spots is all the team needs to push into the postseason.

Boston Red Sox – No Win Total Pick – No Playoffs

The Boston Red Sox turned in one of the more impressive seasons in recent memory with their 2021 performance, but everything about it was filled with fragility. They squeezed out a few more wins than their Pythagorean Record expected, and their top performer — in terms of WAR — was Enrique Hernandez, who eclipsed his career-high for plate appearances by more than 100. It’s hard to ask for a team that already expects a lengthy absence from pitcher Chris Sale to seamlessly build off of last year’s deep playoff run, and it’s more likely that 2022 is used as a rest period while the team takes a breath and lays out its future plans. Bringing in Trevor Story is part of said plans.

Baltimore Orioles – OVER 61.5 Wins – No Playoffs

Surely, we’ve all played the game, “Which of these do not belong?” If we apply that same metric to the American League East, we will easily land on the Baltimore Orioles. That’s exactly why I want to take them somewhat seriously in 2022. I don’t expect them to battle for the divisional crown, but they are completely ignored and, thus, the perception is pushing their win total to a laughably low level. Are they “laughably” bad? They have been. But they have also selected early enough in the draft for so many years that a payoff of some sort is likely. I’d want to take advantage of the low expectations.

Minnesota Twins – OVER 81.5 Wins – AL Central Winner

Of all the divisions in baseball, the one over which I obsessed the most was the American League Central. If we expect any regression from the incumbent champions — as I do — then we can actually make the case for any other team to slide to the top. That’s right. Any of the four remaining combatants can win the division. But, if I’m spreading out the numbers appropriately and asking one to rise above the rest, it’s the one with the biggest upside and the recent history of success. The Minnesota Twins committed to Byron Buxton and the superstar potential he still carries — if, as always, he can stay healthy — and they used the financial savings from trading away Josh Donaldson to immediately turn aggressive. The immediate hurdle appears to be Chicago, but Minnesota has all the pieces in place to make such a move.

Detroit Tigers – OVER 78.5 Wins – Wild Card Berth

You read that right. I have the Detroit Tigers making the playoffs this year. I get it. The Tigers are a joke and have been for quite awhile. But, how long does that continue for a team that consistently has high draft picks? Like the aforementioned Orioles, the Tigers have been rebuilding for years. Unlike the Orioles, the Tigers have graduated some talent to the Major League level and will almost certainly finish the year with two new impact bats in the lineup. Those who make the odds certainly agree to an extent, as Detroit’s over-under win total is a respectable 78.5. I take that seriously, and it supports my argument that the Tigers on the verge of a surprise push toward a playoff berth.

Kansas City Royals – OVER 74.5 Wins – No Playoffs

I wasn’t exaggerating when I suggested that any team in the division has a chance this year, and the Kansas City Royals are the latest example. When jotting down notes for the team, all I wrote next to Kansas City’s name was, “Why not?” Why can’t the Royals sneak above their over-under win total? Why can’t they avoid embarrassment? Am I asking them to actually win the American League Central? Not at all. But they brought back Zack Greinke who should serve as an ‘ace,’ while adding a potential superstar for years to come with top prospect Bobby Witt, Jr. I won’t ignore Kansas City and the upside it carries into a new season.

Texas Rangers – UNDER 74.5 Wins – No Playoffs

There is no denying that the Texas Rangers were incredibly aggressive this offseason, but “aggressive” moves don’t always translate to wins. If anything, Texas reminds me of the Padres from roughly a decade ago, where the plan was to bring in veterans everywhere and form a super team. It was a failure then, and I see it as a failure now. The Rangers will hit, and they’ll probably have at least one extended stretch of winning games, but I simply can’t expect the team to sustain anything significant given the inflated expectations.

Seattle Mariners – No Win Total Pick – No Playoffs

I just wrote about “inflated expectations” with the Rangers, but is there any team that fits this description more than the Seattle Mariners? Not only have they also been somewhat aggressive during this past offseason, but they have announced that the top prospect Julio Rodriguez has made the Opening Day roster. As a fan, I love it. But as someone following the numbers, I urge caution. Seattle was far and away the biggest beneficiary of winning close games last year, and it turned a losing season — by the standards of Pythagorean Record — into a winning one in the most dramatic fashion in the league. The best part about last season is that they were highlighted in my article as a team to target via an ‘over’ pick, and they delivered. Now, the field is catching up to them, and the number is inflated. Here is where we jump off the bandwagon and potentially return in a year when the numbers have settled.

Oakland Athletics – No Win Total Pick – No Playoffs

I almost never take a team and its offseason moves at face value — look at the Texas Rangers, for example — but we can’t look at the Oakland Athletics as viable contenders in 2022. I know that we see strange outcomes all the time in sports, but Oakland didn’t even have a possible fifth starter slotted into its rotation in the first weekend of April. The Athletics are ‘sellers’ in a market that is likely to span through the Trade Deadline, and we have to hear the message they are sending loud-and-clear. Oakland is not interested in winning many games this season.

Houston Astros – No Win Total Pick – AL West Winner

Once again, I find myself relying on a somewhat default outcome but, with the exception of someone jumping up and pushing them out of the division lead, I don’t see how the Houston Astros will fail in 2022. The lineup is deep, the rotation will see the return of Justin Verlander — albeit, we don’t know the effectiveness he will bring to the table — and the squad is now a mainstay in the playoff race. Age and attrition might eventually catch up to them, but there are no signs that the end is near.

Los Angeles Angels – OVER 83.5 Wins – Wild Card Berth

I’m not sure there is a franchise that has a wider range of outcomes than the Los Angeles Angels. Of course, every team’s chances to compete in a given year hinges on health, but the players on which the Angels are relying have shown a recent history of missing time. On top of that, how can Shohei Ohtani possibly match what he did last year? It was borderline heroic to carry the team from both sides of the game, but the expectation that he will continue to deliver while Mike Trout performs at an All-Time Great level is quite risky. Therein lies the path to an outstanding season, though and, while I admit to the countless potential pitfalls, I also can’t ignore the ceiling.