For the past year, I have written countless times about how “different” or “unorthodox” 2020 was. Both as an actual calendar year and as a season — baseball, football, etc. Normally, I throw in the caveat that we will have to gauge how much of 2020 can be taken seriously and how much we need to discount. That’s still true, but it takes on a different role when looking for season-long predictions.
For starters, the 2020 Major League Baseball season altered its rules right around Opening Day. The playoffs expanded from ten teams to 16. It changed the dynamic for everyone. The New York Yankees — who were the front-runners to win the American League East — didn’t need to press as hard to still fall within one of the top-eight seeds in the League. Conversely, the Miami Marlins found themselves in a playoff race during the sprint and secured a Wild Card berth despite a negative run differential.
This may be the first talking point when approaching the 2021 season, but it doesn’t actually have a numeric value. That’s fine in many regards — some predictions are more nuanced than the numbers say — but it can’t directly be used here. Still, it’s something we need to keep in the back of our minds — namely, with a team like the Yankees that can’t rely on the wider net being cast over the League.
Thankfully, the 2020 season provided us with one other difference that we can use to our advantage. That is, the shortened season can directly extrapolate out to a full year. This is not a normal occurrence, so we should jump at the opportunity.
That’s where I’ll start. Before I even get into each team’s breakdown and how or why they can change their respective fates, it is important to take advantage of the unique disconnect between last year and now.
By simply taking the runs scored and allowed in the 60-game season and scaling it out to a full 162, we can compare the projected win total — here, by using the Pythagorean win formula — to this season’s over-under for wins. Remember, these numbers are being taken directly from last year’s results, and have no “predictive” math built into them. Still, the results are interesting.
All over-under win totals are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. As always, please do your own research and due diligence before acting on anything written in this article.
Below is the Pythagorean record from last season’s runs scored and runs allowed scaled over 162 games and then compared to this season’s over-under win totals. I trimmed the list to include only the most extreme cases as well as any team that is particularly interesting for one-reason-or-another — most of which I will document in the writeups to follow.
With these baselines established, I can now continue through my normal process of projecting a team’s win total in the following year. Whenever I refer to the “scaled win total,” however, I will be pointing back to the chart shown above. Ideally, we can identify teams that land on the same side of the over-under for both the “scaled win total” table and the projected season outcome. Those teams would be clear targets.
Below are my predictions for the 2021 Major League Baseball Season. The green highlight indicates a season-long over/under win total pick. I wrote about any team that either had an over-under win total pick, is projected to make the playoffs, or is particularly interesting. All over-under win totals are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Once again, please do your own research and due diligence before acting on anything written in this article. Click here for Mario’s 2021 fantasy baseball rankings.
American League Projected Standings
Baltimore Orioles – OVER 63.5 Wins – No Playoffs
If you looked at the “Scaled Win Total” chart in the first section of this article, there should be no surprise as to why the Baltimore Orioles are listed with a pick. They were one of the teams whose numbers would have been far better over a full 162 games. And, compared to this season’s over-under win total, they have the largest gap. I don’t have them reaching the high-point number of 76 wins, but the runs scored and allowed should not be noticeably worse than what Baltimore did in 2020. The offense is good — and plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark — and the starting rotation might be a tad better than last year’s — anchored by a healthy John Means. The Orioles are obviously in a tough division, but they have enough talent to avoid 98 losses. That’s the score to beat in 2021.
Toronto Blue Jays – UNDER 86 Wins – No Playoffs
I’ll certainly write about this in later parts of the column, but the Toronto Blue Jays are the first ones to appear in such a setup, so they have the esteemed honor of paving the way. That is, they are the first team listed who performed exactly as projected in last year’s column which was also an uncommon — and therefore undervalued — play. As I write throughout my football articles, mentioning this is not a chance for me to highlight a correct pick, but instead a way to frame expectations for the future. In the case of the Blue Jays, they follow the tried-and-true pattern of a “team that surprised, then regresses hard for a year before ultimately picking a direction.” We’re in the regression, where Toronto needs to maintain its high-octane offense while also avoiding a decline in pitching output. It’s not going to be easy, and the over-under win total is priced as if the Blue Jays will continue thriving one year after a breakout.
New York Yankees – No Win Total Pick – Wild Card Berth
Until the New York Yankees fail to meet their lofty regular season expectations, we are simply never going to get value with their over-under win totals — the premium will be too high. Still, we have to acknowledge that, as talented and deep as the Yankees are, they will be pushed in the American League East. Between the inflated over-under and sharing the division with the 2020 American League Pennant winners, New York is more of a “hold” than “buy.” With that, they slide down a few pegs, but still find a relatively easy path to the playoffs. After all, the lineup and bullpen are excellent, and the rotation is headlined by one of the most dominant pitchers in the sport in Gerrit Cole.
Tampa Bay Rays – OVER 86 Wins – AL East Winner
I made one mistake with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020. I weighed the shortened season against them too heavily. Before the delay of the season, I was buying Tampa Bay heavily on the premise that the team has figured out how to steal wins over the course of the season. Wins that compound and produce a positive record. With the runway for such a move shortened by roughly one-third, I bailed on the Rays. They proved me wrong. Not only can they steal wins that compound over a full season, but they can do it in a condensed one, too. I won’t make the same mistake twice, and I certainly won’t project the loss of some players as anything more than inconsequential to this particular machine of a team.
Kansas City Royals – No Win Total Pick – No Playoffs
I’m listing the Kansas City Royals in this article simply because they are close to being worthy of a pick. Certainly, I like to take my chances, and I had to fight myself to not include the Royals in my list of picks, but their over-under win total is a little higher than I would like. Take that seriously. It’s a sign that there is a reason to buy into Kansas City. The key here is that they aren’t a pushover in the American League Central, and they likely assist in the division, overall, being more balanced without a runaway winner.
Chicago White Sox – No Win Total Pick – No Playoffs
One of the darlings of last offseason is also the darlings of this offseason. Cautiously, I’m not buying. I’m also not outright ‘selling’ the Chicago White Sox, considering how deep the team is. Still, Chicago already lost outfielder Eloy Jimenez — if not for the full regular season, then a large portion of it — and many of its high-impact young players are already on the roster. Put another way, the White Sox don’t have the luxury of continually dipping into their Minor League system for help like they have in recent years. They will still compete, but I wouldn’t go overboard with trusting more of a surge from Chicago.
Minnesota Twins – No Win Total Pick – AL Central Winner
I’m never one to lean on a team that has delivered for a decent stretch of time and expect more of the same without digging deeper for a reason. In the case of the Minnesota Twins, I simply can’t find a reason why they won’t compete for another division title. Their pitching staff is solid — even if it isn’t great — the lineup is deep, and the team added defensive help in shortstop Andrelton Simmons. The American League Central is likely to be a tight race, but I prefer to lean on the team that has managed such races in recent history.
Oakland Athletics – UNDER 86.5 Wins – No Playoffs
Last year’s division champions, the Oakland Athletics are one of the easier teams for me to sell in 2021. Their lineup does not appear to have made strides from last season, and the pitching rotation is frightening. I’ll give some credit to Oakland for its ability to find top-notch relief pitchers, but the win total — 86.5 — is significantly lower than what last year’s scaled out season would have needed. I’ve used that as an argument in favor of a team, but I will flip the script and go against the Athletics in this scenario. There’s no reason to think the team will match last year’s pace and, thus, it should fall well short of it — especially in an improved division.
Seattle Mariners – OVER 73 Wins – No Playoffs
I was extremely close to listing the Seattle Mariners as a Wild Card team in addition to a win total pick, but it’s not likely the Mariners jump all-but-one team in the American League West. It’s not impossible, though, as Seattle has sneaky potential to be much better in 2021. How? Because the lineup is rounding into shape and has help on the way. That matters, not only because a player like Jarred Kelenic can provide an on-field boost, but because the lack of his presence on Opening Day — and the unknown he brings — will help lower the win total number to beat. I’ll take advantage, especially since the Mariners’ rotation is not a complete disaster. It may not be among the best in the league, but it has the parts to contribute to some wins.
Los Angeles Angels – OVER 83.5 Wins – Wild Card Berth
At one point, I have to be the one making the mistake. I continually lean on the Los Angels to do something with the career of one of the greatest hitters of All-Time. They haven’t. Is that a “shame on me?” Maybe, but I still can’t fight the direction that the team has to go if it wants to make the best of Mike Trout’s career. The good news is that the numbers fully support me buying into Los Angeles. The Angels’ numbers — as shown in the “Scaled Win Total” table — indicate that, over a full season, they were a 90-win team. The reality? They couldn’t even reach .500. With that, the win total actually shows better than a ‘winning record’ as the target, and Los Angeles should be with dual-threat Shohei Ohtani for the full season. I’m buying again.
Houston Astros – No Win Total Pick – AL West Winner
The baseball world may be one year removed from learning about the Houston Astros’ cheating scandal, but it’s still difficult to gauge how this will impact the team’s win total in 2021. What we do know is that Houston finished last season with a losing record and still managed to find itself in the American League Championship Series. The Astros lost George Springer to free agency, but will replace him with Kyle Tucker — a potential star in the making. Elsewhere, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman stand in-line for a positive correction after comparatively weak seasons. In the end, Houston may have hit a bottom from which it will now rebound into the playoff picture via another division title.