I’m an emotional person who romanticizes baseball. I am currently in a state of wild emotions.
I’m giddy because the season is here. Seriously, the thought of Major League Baseball being played is enough to send me into a state of unbridled joy.
I’m scared that I might be getting ahead of myself. Anything could happen. The season could shut down, which would be more catastrophic than it not starting at all.
I’m confused because of the unknowns. Will every player make it through the next 60 games without an issue? Probably not, but how do we account for that?
Finally, I’m uneasy. It’s the middle of July and I’m writing about the start of baseball. It’s not normal, and it doesn’t jive with my ‘creature-of-habit’ mentality.
Of course, the same bouncing of emotions that I am feeling are sure to be found elsewhere. I’m not alone, and neither is anyone who is trying to hold onto some normalcy in this abnormal time. This is where sports play a key role.
In less than a week, we will be watching baseball. We will care about what happens in a game that does not directly affect our lives. We will have something to distract us and something to follow.
This is why I romanticize baseball. It’s the friend that’s always there.
This year, it’s been absent. I get it, but a piece of me was missing. No longer. My approach to this season is to pretend that all 30 teams have already played 102 games and we’re about to enter the final 60-game stretch. The playoffs have not changed, and, in a week or so, we will already start to see some postseason races taking shape. If, nothing else, that will be fun.
The task at hand for us is to not get caught up in what could happen, because, truly, anything could happen. Seriously, the Miami Marlins could win the division. Is it likely? No. But it was nearly impossible in 2019. It’s, at least, possible now.
The important note is that, while it is undeniably “more possible” for the Marlins to win the division, it isn’t a smart pick to make. That’s the point. Many doors are open. They aren’t all worth exploring.
The other phenomenon that we will experience in 2020 is the final standings. One team will probably win 40 games while another will probably lose 40, but there isn’t a single over-under win total that projects such an outcome. Instead, the numbers tend to sit near the mean. This is common in win totals for all seasons, but we just established that the Marlins could win the division. Shouldn’t the numbers account for such an outlier? They don’t, and that’s why we can’t either.
Below are my predictions for the 2020 Major League Baseball Season. The green highlight indicates a season-long over/under win total pick. I wrote about any team that either had an over-under win total pick, is projected to make the playoffs, or is particularly interesting. All over-under win totals are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Click here for Mario’s 2020 fantasy baseball rankings.
American League Projected Standings
Tampa Bay Rays – No Win Total Pick – No Playoffs
Here’s a secret. I was planning on making the Tampa Bay Rays my American League pennant winner back in March. They have proven time and again how they can think creatively to steal wins, and it plays perfectly over the course of the marathon that is a Major League Baseball season. The problem is that we are no longer in the marathon of a Major League Baseball season.
If the Rays have ‘figured out’ the league in the sense that they can compile small advantages that lead to bigger victories, then what happens when the volume decreases? Smaller advantages never have the chance to compile.
Tampa Bay will be in the mix, but we simply haven’t seen them overcome adversity from a change in the formula. With the Rays’ approach based more on methodology than hitting a hot streak, I’m selling them in 2020.
New York Yankees – No Win Total Pick – AL East Winner
One of the simplest conversations to have about the 2020 season involves injuries — and, in this particular year, missing time from the virus. Every team will deal with injuries, and those with deeper rosters will best withstand said injuries. The New York Yankees are near the top of this list.
New York didn’t have Gerrit Cole in 2019 and still won the American League East by seven games. Giancarlo Stanton was also a non-factor and Aaron Judge missed time. The Yankees will get bitten by the injury bug, but they are arguably the top team equipped to survive and make the playoffs anyway.
Baltimore Orioles – OVER 20.5 Wins – No Playoffs
Last year, I wrote about the Baltimore Orioles being capable of avoiding complete and utter embarrassment. I was wrong. The team somehow managed to follow a 100-loss season with another 100-loss season. Score some points for consistency.
As the Orioles were continuing to prove that they couldn’t be trusted, it became clear why it was so difficult for them to compete. Baltimore isn’t built to withstand the gauntlet of the American League East over a six-month span. Therein lies the value of this year.
I purposely wrote about not going overboard with what could happen because I knew I’d take a few calculated risks where possibilities outweighed practicality. This is because I’m not targeting the Orioles to usurp the Yankees atop the division. I’m asking them to win 21 games. Baltimore is bad, but so is 21-39. The over-under should be lower. The fact that it isn’t has my buying in carefully.
Toronto Blue Jays – OVER 27.5 Wins – Wild Card Berth
I mentioned the Orioles giving us something, but not enough to make the playoffs. I’m taking it one step further with the Toronto Blue Jays.
The talk around Toronto will be “the future.” We’ll hear about how good the Blue Jays can be in a few years. This is true, but why not now? I’m always willing to take a risk on a team arriving too early — where value is at its greatest. Remember, the young core of the franchise already played together last year and has no reason to doubt their collective ceiling. Toronto is the perfect example of a team with the potential to get hot at the right time. And then the organization can bring up Nate Pearson to make the final playoff push.
Kansas City Royals – OVER 24.5 Wins – No Playoffs
Whenever I pick a ‘sleeper team,’ I like to see them make a push in to the playoff race. This won’t be the case for the Kansas City Royals, but I love the separation between their perception and what they are capable of bringing to a short season. This is similar to the introduction where I wrote about not falling in love with what a team could do, except I’m taking the plunge because the bar is set so low.
If we’re ranking teams based on any strengths they have, then Kansas City probably wins in the speed category. Not to misplace the metaphor, but the sprint-that-is this year will likely come down to winning a handful of games that a team otherwise loses in a past season — for one reason or another. Kansas City finally having an edge somewhere will help secure enough wins to slide past the low win total.
Cleveland Indians – No Win Total Pick – AL Central Winner
I’m extremely proud of being ahead of last year’s American League Central where i pushed the Twins ahead of the Cleveland Indians. The reasoning behind it was nothing more than timing. The Twins were about to surge while the Indians were idling.
The reality of a surge, however, is that it can revert back to the mean at any time. The Minnesota Twins not only won the division, but broke the single-season home run record in the process. Regression is coming. Cleveland will stand to benefit as it has one of the more complete teams in the league.
Detroit Tigers – UNDER 21.5 Wins – No Playoffs
Last year, I remember looking at the Pirates’ win total and asking how they could come close to it. Pittsburgh was bad, and it was going to remain bad. The win total had so much wiggle room that I was willing to lose with the pick and not feel a shred of disappointment. It won, as the Pirates missed their win total by nine-and-a-half-games.
The Detroit Tigers are this year’s Pirates. Granted, everyone assumes Detroit will be bad, but the number is not at rock bottom. As stated in the introduction, not a single win total implies a team will lose 40 games, but we expect it to happen. Detroit will make it happen.
Chicago White Sox – UNDER 31.5 Wins – No Playoffs
I’d like to preface this writeup by stating that I was all over the Chicago White Sox during this offseason. They were about to be one of my top sleeper picks. Things have changed.
For starters, Chicago is now everyone’s sleeper pick. That’s fine. It’s not about the credit. But it is about the number. The over-under, therefore, is showing an above-.500 season. Think about some other picks in this article. We have the Blue Jays with some nice value and the Royals as a team that could overperform, yet each could win it’s pick with a losing season. Not the White Sox. Chicago has to clear 31.5 wins, and do so with extreme hype and no Michael Kopech.
Kopech wasn’t necessarily going to be the team’s savior, but 2020 had the perfect storm of a group arriving early — again, think Blue Jays. It won’t happen. The storm is no longer perfect.
The edge is small, and I’m willing to lose with this one, but I suspect the industry is keen on how hyped the White Sox are and it set the number just out-of-reach. We’ll talk again in 2021.
Los Angeles Angels – OVER 31.5 Wins – AL West Winner
Look how far the Los Angeles Angels have come from last year to this year. They have a new manager — who previously ended the Chicago Cubs’ 100-year World Series drought — a fully healthy two-way superstar, one of the most instrumental pieces to last year’s World Series victory, and, of course, the best player on the planet. The last of this list was present in 2019. Still, Mike Trout is that important that he is worth mentioning again.
In baseball, it’s difficult for one player to carry a team. It doesn’t happen often. But, one player can get hot and carry a team to a week’s worth of wins. The Angels have enough players around Trout to help win games when he inevitability cools off, but we’re looking for one surge from the league’s best player, and it’s likely that we get it.
Houston Astros – No Win Total Pick – Wild Card Berth
We have to consider all storylines when trying to find misaligned value. The problem with the Houston Astros is that we have no way to properly gauge said value. We know the team will be under the media microscope after the offseason revealed a cheating scandal, but how many wins or losses is said microscope worth? Will it even be a distraction? Does the absence of fans subdue some of the vitriol?
In the end, there simply isn’t a play worth making. The most likely outcome is that the team rallies behind its new role as the villain and fights its way to another playoff berth. It just won’t cruise there.