The more I read about strategies to win March Madness pools, the prouder I am that this column has focused on game theory more than game action. The problem, however, is that more people are focused on game theory, and that lowers the edge it has.
Of course, that means we can find another advantage by moving back to the original approach. Just target teams that will win!
Obviously, if we could do that, then nothing else would matter. But, the key is to strike a nice balance between expecting success and looking for ways to capitalize on other brackets failing.
Please always use your own discretion and do your research before risking anything. Below are my picks and thoughts about this year’s March Madness bracket. All odds are courtest of DraftKings Sportsbook
7 Kansas (-205) vs. 10 Arkansas and Kansas to Reach Sweet 16 (+210)
I opened last year’s column with arguably the most interesting matchup of the first round, so there was no way around repeating that process here. Not only do we have the team’s name value in Kansas, but we have an absolutely epic battle of head coaches. The most important part? This is John Calipari’s first year as the head coach of Arkansas, where he has now taken his fourth team to the NCAA Tournament. That’s going to carry plenty of weight in terms of expectations, but are we really going to ignore how much success Calipari has had? The same is true for Kansas’ Bill Self, which is why it’s hard to find a more exciting matchup than this one. There is one key element, though. Kansas was this year’s preseason top team, and they’re now being discussed as an afterthought. It’s possible they get knocked out in the first round, but I would not be surprised — and I’m going to pick it happening — if Kansas went on a run over the next few weeks.
Alabama to Reach Elite 8 (+120)
Alabama has come alive as a powerhouse over the last few years and consistently enjoyed prolonged runs in March. That culminated in another great one last year, but it fell short just prior to the end. In looking through the trend associated with what happens to teams that lose in the Final Four to the eventual Champion, and it’s not great. Generally speaking, the following year has not provided an impressive encore often. The way I’m playing this is an all-or-nothing mentality where Alabama either gets shocked early or at least makes it to the Elite 8, where we get some nice value with that outcome.
9 Georgia (+235) vs. 8 Gonzaga
I had to do a double-take when checking the odds for Gonzaga to win multiple games. The reality is that I was already considering picking against them because of their name value. This just made it easier. The concern is obviously that Gonzaga takes off and I miss their run, but we can essentially hedge against that happening right away with their first game against the underdogs from Georgia. Gonzaga feels like a make-or-break team to get right, so I’m willing to take the chance with extremes in either direction. For reference, the odds for Gonzaga to reach the Sweet 16 are +340.
5 Memphis (+110) vs. 12 Colorado State
It has been established for quite a long time that the 5 vs. 12 seed game is one of the most worrisome types of matchups for the better seed to win. Because of how commonplace that argument has become, however, it is actually shifting the expectations a little too strongly. Basically, there will be at least one five-seed in the tournament that will be overlooked, and Memphis is it. For starters, they are underdogs in the first round! If that doesn’t tell the story of overreaction, then nothing will. On the court, Memphis has some experience — they weren’t around last year and had a first-round exit two years ago — but the bigger key is that they also have an offensive player who can take over a game. Sophomore P.J. Haggerty ranked third in the nation in points-per-game.
Kentucky to NOT Reach Sweet 16 (-140)
It’s always a game of finding value, but the opposite is also true. Instead of seeing the teams that might be inflated because of past success, I find it equally telling when a team that has won looks particularly enticing because of the odds. That’s the case with Kentucky. Their likelihood to win their first two games, on paper, seems fine. But the reward for them doing so is too great to ignore. It’s +100 for Kentucky to reach the Sweet 16. That’s why it’s dangerous to simply assume it will happen. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many great opportunities to take advantage of this possibility because we have to wait until the First Four games are decided, but that also means we have a few routes to capitalize on Kentucky falling short. The most direct one is to simply pick against Kentucky, but we can also take some chances if we wanted to lean on Illinois, Xavier, or Texas.
UConn to Reach Sweet 16 (+600)
I will admit that the odds here are so tantalizing that it must be a ‘trap.’ Maybe. But I’ll fall into it gladly. It’s nothing more than a matter of value, and we have UConn showing extreme odds in a situation where the team has clearly thrived in recent years — by winning back-to-back National Championships. Sometimes, I ask myself, “Will I be surprised if this team performs this well or will I be mad at myself for not taking the calculated risk?” If the latter is true, and the odds are there, then we have no reason to play it safe. Such is the case with UConn.
A 14-Seed Will Win a Game (+145)
I’m actually not going to look at past trends for this one because I am making the pick based on the totality of the games and not just one in particular. That is, despite me always looking for major ‘upsets’ here, I found it almost impossible to pick against any one-seed or two-seed. But, we know that this tournament is built on the unexpected happening, and I don’t want to miss that opportunity if it arises. I’ll look for a three-seed to fail in the Opening Round
Other Picks
Simply based on the odds and potential matchups — i.e. if a top-seed falls and opens the door for another team to advance deeper than many expect — here are some other teams and picks I like:
Houston to Reach Final Four (+105)
12 UC San Diego to Beat Michigan (+124)
Missouri to Reach Sweet 16 (+250)
Michigan State to Reach Final 4 (+500)
14 Troy Beat Kentucky (+525)
Kansas to Reach Elite 8 (+550)
Houston to win Championship (+600)
Michigan State to win Championship (+2500)
Final Thoughts
I did some research on this topic because it was bothering me greatly to have chosen so many two-seeds over the years only to see them fail too early too often. As I feared, my memory served me correctly.
No two-seed has made it to the championship since the 2015-2016 season. That team did win the championship, but it did so against a one-seed.
And, to that point, it’s the one-seeds that have thrived.
A one-seed has reached the Championship Game in seven-out-of-the-last-eight tournaments. And, of those seven times, the winner was also a one-seed — keep in mind, some of those years featured both teams as one-seeds. The only loss in that stretch was back in the aforementioned ’15-’16 season when a two-seed cut down the nets.
The trend is clear. Even if it’s dangerous to lean on such a streak, it’s rare to find a championship game without a one-seed present. With that, I’m basically splitting the difference. I will choose a two-seed in Michigan State to win it all, but I will also be pairing them with a one-seed — Houston — in the final game.
Good luck!