I stumbled upon something interesting today. When going through my first pass at research after the March Madness brackets were set, I found many more articles about the strategy and theory behind winning a bracket this year compared to any in the past. Machine learning, artificial intelligence, and the general emphasis placed on statistics are all playing a role, but I lead with this because I have touched upon it many times in prior iterations of this article.
If you want to win your bracket, you have to win against the field, not win the games. Of course, winning games will increase your chances of winning a bracket, but your competition isn’t on the television screen. It’s in your pool.
It may not sound like good news to hear that others are starting to think as we do, but there might be a different edge that can be found because of it. Perhaps the actual matchups on the court are devalued. Maybe the number of people looking for ‘upsets’ will make the underdog — or worse seed — such a hot pick that it becomes more advantageous for us to land on a favorite.
We must consider this as we move through this year’s bracket, especially because we are, once again, being told that the field is more open than usual.
Please always use your own discretion and do your research before risking anything. Below are my picks and thoughts about this year’s March Madness bracket. All odds are courtest of DraftKings Sportsbook
4 Virginia (-230) vs. 13 Furman
As I write in my football picks, perception is everything. Virginia is the only team in history to have lost as a 1-seed to a 16-seed, and it appears to be constantly punished for this misstep. How do we know this? Because Furman is one of the hottest double-digit seeded picks to pull off the ‘upset’ in the first round. There’s certainly a reason to like Furman heading into the tournament, but the general call for an ‘upset’ feels more dismissive of Virginia than anything else. Keep this in mind for the sake of the bracket, as Virginia is not likely to be a popular pick for a deep run, which gives anyone who does make such a pick a nice advantage.
7 Missouri vs. 10 Utah State (-130)
I’m sure there are some numbers that will disagree, but almost every metric on the surface argues that Utah State is better than Missouri. Maybe those numbers are wrong, but there is one indication that I take more seriously than all: the moneyline. Utah State is a ten-seed that is favored against seven-seeded Missouri, and that imbalance — coupled with the underlying metrics — is enough for me.
8 Arkansas vs. 9 Illinois (+110)
It is often the close-seeded matchups that go a long way in determining which bracket is best, and that means we need to pay extra attention to any game between the eight and nine-seeds. The good news is that Illinois has excellent value, regardless of seed. Arkansas has gone to the Elite Eight in back-to-back seasons, and this feels like a team that would be too obvious and too easy to at least face Kansas in the second round. Meanwhile, Illinois has experience in the NCAA Tournament — as does its coach — and is basically forgotten in the West bracket.
8 Memphis vs. 9 Florida Atlantic (+115)
Once again, I’m sticking with the 8-9 game for the value it presents. If you do any research about Memphis, you will come away with the impression that it might be a sneaky play to make a deep run. As I wrote for the prior matchup, that completely devalues the opponent. Florida Atlantic was 31-3 and was quietly ranked in the Top-25. Ignore the noise about Memphis and focus on how Florida Atlantic simply knows how to win games.
5 Saint Mary’s (-190) vs. VCU
I love trying to find the 5-12 matchup that is going to produce an ‘upset.’ But, do you know who else loves trying to find the 5-12 matchup that is going to produce an ‘upset’? Everyone. It’s no longer a secret that a 12-seed can knock off a five-seed in the first round, and that’s why teams like VCU gain momentum in brackets. Really Saint Mary’s is poised to take control of the game via excellent rebounding, and I’ll take the comparatively good odds simply driven by the seed.
Baylor to Reach Sweet 16 (+120)
Wasn’t Baylor a one-seed last year? And didn’t that follow a national championship the prior year? It seems like we forgot how solid of a program Baylor has built, and the three-seed is showing plus-money to win two games in the tournament. Granted, the second game is likely to be against a two-seed, but we aren’t asking for a major ‘upset’ from a team that has recently thrived.
Virginia to Reach Sweet 16 (+145) and Elite Eight (+700)
Similarly to Baylor, Virginia had success, then lost it, and now finds itself overlooked. Great. We’ll gladly take the odds, even if it does mean that Virginia would have to knock off the top-seed in the entire tournament. As I wrote earlier in this article, Virginia is being heavily discounted, which gives us the avenue to capitalize if it continues to win as it has in the past.
Michigan State to Reach Sweet 16 (+270) and Elite Eight (+650), Kentucky to Reach Elite Eight (+450)
If anything, the ‘chalk’ argument is that Marquette is one of the weakest highly-seeded teams in the tournament, and picking against them making a deep run is going to be common. That same popularity might extend to putting Michigan State in the Sweet 16, but how can we pass up on those excellent odds? We can’t. Furthermore, Kentucky is absolutely going to be a popular pick to secure an Elite Eight spot — and rightfully so, but it’s possible to win on both sides of the equation if the two teams were to meet.
Gonzaga to Win National Championship (+1400)
For the high number of times that Gonzaga has been a top-seed in the tournament in recent years, it has never actually emerged as the champion. Last year, I wrote about how difficult it was to pick any other team except Gonzaga. This year, the opposite is true. There are a handful of teams — at least — that could be listed as the champion and would have reasonable arguments to support them. Once again, I want to take the overlooked option. Gonzaga isn’t going away, and it’s possible that falling to the three-seed might actually help the team reach the pinnacle for the first time in the program’s existence.
Other Picks
Simply based on the odds and potential matchups — i.e. if a top-seed falls and opens the door for another team to advance deeper than many expect — here are some other teams and picks I like:
Indiana to reach Sweet 16 (+130)
Connecticut to reach Elite Eight (+200)
Texas A&M to reach Sweet 16 (+250) and Elite Eight (+550)
Utah State to reach Sweet 16 (+330)
Boise State to reach Sweet 16 (+500)
Louisiana-Lafayette to reach Sweet 16 (+1200)
Final Thoughts
I keep reading two conflicting comments — that the field is wide open this year and that Alabama and Houston are destined to meet in the championship. The more these same arguments are repeated, the more I expect them to fail. Is it true that Alabama and Houston are two of the best teams in the tournament? Of course. But, if the field is really as balanced as many are arguing, then shouldn’t more teams have a chance to claim the title?
Really, what I am finding as the most valuable approach to this year’s bracket is the ‘chalk’ with the mid-seeds of 5-7. As I wrote earlier in the game between VCU and Saint Mary’s, there is a desire to find the 12-seed that can win its first game, and that is probably leading to some confirmation bias. Granted, Duke and Kentucky will be popular in their own right, but don’t be afraid to put some teams in the Sweet 16 that initially appear to have difficult matchups. They don’t always play out as intended.
Good luck!