I constantly write about how much I love numbers and, quite frankly, that they tend to tell a better story than the teams. When it comes to March Madness, this is especially true. Because, no matter how much we try to hide it, most people who partake in filling out brackets know next-to-nothing about the teams they are picking to win.
They follow numbers, be-it in the form of seeding, records, or a variety of rankings. Therefore, the other numbers – the ones I hold so close to my heart – can take advantage of the misconceptions.
These numbers are the odds.
And they never disappoint.
I’ve won two or three bracket tournaments in decent-sized groups over the last decade, and I always follow the same format. It’s a combination of checking the odds and finding trends that can be repeated. But, nailing the best bracket involves so many intersecting results that it isn’t worth the effort to try to be perfect.
The same is true for picking the future outcomes for each team.
Do we think one specific squad is highly likely to win two games before it loses one? That is what we are asking every time we put a team in the Sweet 16. And, in doing so, we knock out at least one opponent. But, this can be extended to a second. Quickly, we are eliminating options in our bracket, as well as finding value plays.
In the end, we may not be able to predict any one region’s outcome, but we will be in better position to capitalize on certain teams and their respective results. This is, once again, another game of numbers.
Below are my picks and thoughts about this year’s March Madness bracket. As always, use your own discretion and do your research before risking anything.
Kansas Jayhawks to not reach Sweet 16 (-167)
Let’s start with the Kansas Jayhawks. Of the 56 teams that were not seeded first or second in their region, they were the only one about which I read nothing and still advanced them into the Sweet 16. Historically-good program? Check. Accomplished coach? Check. Good seeding? Check. Whatever I wanted to see, I found. And then I looked at the odds.
-167 that the Jayhawks would not reach the Sweet 16.
In its simplest form, it is much more likely that Kansas doesn’t make it to the Sweet 16 than does. It’s as simple as that. I subsequently removed Kansas from winning even one game – more on that in a bit – let alone two.
The Kansas example is perfect for two reasons. For starters, I did no research before making a decision, which is not only wrong, but common. Seriously. It is the norm that someone would fill out portions of a bracket without ever looking into a team because the matchup “seemed” easy and the team had a good history. The second reason why the example works is because the numbers were so blatantly against what I did. These odds aren’t weak. They aren’t a proverbial coin toss. They are firmly in the direction of what I did not think would happen. So now I do. And I was able to make a pick in which I have confidence, as well as progress my bracket by a few teams.
Louisville Cardinals to not reach Sweet 16 (-835)
Louisville is another program with name value and, if you’re filling out the bracket two games in advance, it’s easy to pin one pick on the question of, “Will Louisville beat Michigan State or not?” Maybe. But look at how drastic the odds are that they won’t make the Sweet 16. Whatever ‘upset’ you’re seeking in the form of a deep run by the Cardinals, look elsewhere.
This one is less of a pick because of how extreme the odds are and more a tip about avoiding the Cardinals in the later rounds of the Tournament.
Buffalo Bulls to not reach Sweet 16 (-360)
Last year, I made a mistake. I heard about a trendy team that was “good enough to win two games.” So, what did I do? I wrote them in for two wins in my bracket.
In what-should-not-be-a-surprise, they lost in the first round. I vowed to not be so easily swayed in the future. Instead, I looked for the same team that had the same trendy feel, and I knocked it out early. Enter the Buffalo Bulls. They’re a six-seed that went a whopping 31-3 in the regular season. They have all the makings of a Sweet 16 team, and they will get a lot of buzz as the Tournament approaches. And yet, the odds are overwhelming that Buffalo will not win two games.
What does this tell me? That Buffalo is too hyped and that the third-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders actually have the far better chance to advance. That helps my bracket – Texas Tech is now in the Sweet 16, at least – and it gives me a chance to attack the popularity of Buffalo.
There is another way to play this, however. With Buffalo acting as an ‘underdog’ to make the Sweet 16 (+275), if you’re buying into them winning the first game, you can pick them to reach the Sweet 16 at that +275 number and, after the first win, pick them as an underdog against Texas Tech. If the Red Raiders fail to win their first game, then the road for Buffalo just got that much easier.
Editor’s Note: This was my mistake on how to present the pick, so let me clarify. If the Bulls win and Red Raiders lose their first game, you can hedge the Sweet 16 bet by picking against Buffalo. If the Bulls and Red Raiders both win, you can either live-bet the Red Raiders as underdogs if it gets to that point – certainly a possibility – or still hedge before the game with slightly diminished odds for Texas Tech.
Syracuse Orange to not reach Sweet 16 (-3335)
One more in the category of “Popular Names that Probably Won’t go Far,” Syracuse would have to win its first game – an 8/9 matchup with Baylor and then beat Gonzaga in the second round. It actually seems possible, right? Check those odds again. That is a major red flag.
Like Louisville, this is definitely a pick not worth making, but it should end any thoughts of being too aggressive with the Orange.
Duke to Win National Championship (+240)
I’m sensing a trend where I’m giving picks that I don’t actually like – don’t worry, I’ll give ones I do later – but picks that have to be mentioned. The Duke Blue Devils are clearly the best team in the country and are seeded accordingly. But, even with the hype and production, they are only +240 to win the National Championship. I can certainly paint a picture where Duke loses a heart-breaker before reaching the end of the Tournament, but the odds have given us a little bit of leeway. At +240, you can – read, should – pair whichever team you think will win the Championship with Duke. You’re being given the ability to grab Duke and one more and still come out profitable.
Picks
In addition to the ones above, here are the picks I like and will be making prior to the 2019 NCAA Tournament:
Teams to NOT reach Sweet 16:
LSU Tigers (-125)
Florida State Seminoles (+105)
Houston Cougars (+115)
Michigan Wolverines (+180)
Teams to Reach Sweet 16:
Purdue Boilermakers (-143)
Auburn Tigers (+114)
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