Week 3 provided some of the best upside plays of the young season, as typically-great fantasy offenses – i.e. Pittsburgh, Carolina, Arizona – fell apart. We were careful to avoid them and place our daily fantasy assets elsewhere. One week later, we now have the opportunity to flip sides and buy.

An elevated amount of higher-priced targets will, naturally, restrict our budget. For this reason, it is imperative to target some bargain buys. Of course, most weeks require a nice balance of salary, but the expected rebound from some of the league’s more popular fantasy players forces most lineups to utilize the ‘stars-and-scrubs’ approach.

Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.

Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Luke’s DFS Take: Both offenses struggled mightily in Week 3 – Houston failed to score a single point against New England while the Titans managed only ten points against a Raiders defense previously allowing 34.5 points-per-game. The Titans’ passing game clearly felt the loss of Delanie Walker – who might be out, again – and the matchup appears to be even worse in Week 4 – in fact, Houston’s defense is a decent play. Only DeMarco Murray deserves consideration from Tennessee’s offense based on his volume as both a runner and pass-catcher this year. The Titans’ defense has been solid – eighth-fewest points allowed – suggesting a lower-scoring game, where only Lamar Miller stands out as a gameplan-proof play.

Mario’s DFS Take: There might not be a team I like more than one coming off a shutout. The last three teams that laid an egg all went on to win the following week. Maybe the trend doesn’t continue perfectly, but it is nearly impossible that Houston’s offense looks inept for back-to-back weeks. Most importantly, after failing to show up to a nationally-televised contest, the Texans will likely rely on their main targets – DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller. Houston won’t take any chances trying to get ‘too cute.’ Neither will we.

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