Without a foundation laid, DFS plays for Week 1 of the NFL season rely heavily on last year’s gameplans carrying over into 2016. Specifically, we frequently cite a quarterback’s ‘go-to guy’ as the player that received the bulk of targets, last year. Without any discernible changes in quarterback-wide-receiver relationships, we will assume season-to-season continuity.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 1 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take: Devonta Freeman is a must-play this week. I’m expecting the Falcons will be in the lead, so Freeman should have plenty of carries, especially late. The main reason to target Freeman is that he received fewer than five targets in only three games last season. He is a huge part of their passing game which is great in a PPR format. Julio Jones is the other obvious play. For the Buccaneers, there is some potential value in picking Jameis Winston, as Tampa Bay should be passing a lot if they fall behind early. His potential for a rushing touchdown – he had six in 2015 – makes him somewhat appealing, as well.
Mario’s DFS Take: Not sure if I love Matt Ryan more than other quarterback options, but he has to be considered. Tampa Bay allowed the eighth-most passing touchdowns in the league, last year, despite the seventh-fewest passing attempts. Julio Jones is the obvious target for the same reason, if not more than Matt Ryan.